Bitcoin [BTC] spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows measured -$1.043B in the past three trading days, from the 5th to the 9th of November. The heavy selling saw Bitcoin slip below its 50-week moving average, which is now at $75.2K.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index showed a fearful reading of 26. Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings sold 13,597 Bitcoin at an average of $81,039 per coin, bringing in $1.1B to fund its pivot towards AI data centers.

Heavy liquidations further fueled pessimistic market expectations. According to Glassnode, Hyperliquid trading volume for equities surpassed Bitcoin trading volume as traders rushed to buy the stock market dip.

Short-term holder losses increase, and exchange inflows decline

The Bitcoin short-term holder Spent Output Profit Loss (SOPR) was at 0.99. Readings below 1 signal that selling at a loss is dominant.

Analyst MAC_D also used the Bitcoin Short-term Holder P&L to Exchanges indicator to examine BTC held at a loss. On the 6th of November, 32,695 BTC held at a loss by short-term holders flowed into exchanges.

This accounted for 89% of the total short-term holder exchange inflows.

On the 9th of November, the STH inflows at a loss to exchanges dropped to 9,900 BTC, even though the price fell from $75.7k to $74.8k.

In a post on CryptoQuant, the analyst wrote that declining sell pressure following increased loss realization has, historically, indicated a potential price rebound to the upside.

Bitcoin risk-reward is improving in the price slide

The Bitcoin pullback has removed the short-term holders’ profit cushion, wrote crypto analyst DV Moreno. The STH MVRV was below 1, and the short-term holder NUPL slipped below zero, though unrealized losses were shallower than in February or June earlier this year.

The short-term Sharpe ratio dipped into negative territory, a sign of weak returns relative to the recent volatility.

Earlier this month, Bitcoin rallied above $80k briefly before it came under heavy selling pressure. This rejection highlighted why the bear case is still relevant.

If the net unrealized losses deepen and Bitcoin prices drop below $73k, it would strengthen the bear-market continuation argument, according to the analyst.

Final Summary

  • Bitcoin market participants have multiple reasons to be bearish, such as heavy liquidations, ETF flows, and institutional holders selling.
  • Some signs, such as the STH P&L to exchange metric, signaled easing sell pressure and a potential rebound, but the bearish case is still relevant.