• Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in outflows over the week — the biggest since June 2026.
  • Bitcoin ended the week below the 50-week moving average at $75,500, and Wintermute analysts see the next support near $68,000.
  • Wintermute links the crypto market’s weakness to macroeconomic uncertainty and expectations of a Fed rate hike in December.

The crypto market remains under pressure amid capital outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs, a pullback in risk positions, and worsening macro sentiment. Over the week, bitcoin slipped below its 50-week moving average, while outflows from exchange-traded funds reached $1.28 billion. This is stated in a weekly report by market maker Wintermute.

ETF Outflows and Liquidations Increased Pressure on Bitcoin

According to Wintermute, bitcoin has re-established a tight correlation with traditional financial markets. On Wednesday, the leading cryptocurrency climbed to $81,000 amid gains in equities and oil, but by Friday it had given back the entire move. Analysts say this suggests demand for the asset was driven by a short-term improvement in macro sentiment rather than sustained confidence among crypto market participants.

On Sunday, bitcoin dipped to $73,500, but held slightly above the 200-day moving average near $73,000. A daily close below that level has not been recorded since August. At the same time, the weekly candle closed slightly below the 50-week average at $75,500. As a result, bitcoin ended a seven-week stretch of trading above that indicator.

Another source of pressure was outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs. Over the week, the funds lost $1.28 billion — the largest figure since June. Wintermute estimates that was enough to wipe out all net inflows into these products since the start of the year. The only session in which funds tied to the leading cryptocurrency or Ethereum recorded inflows was Wednesday.

Analysts believe that until this trend reverses, any bitcoin rebound is unlikely to signal fresh capital entering the market.

Liquidations also added to the pressure: by Monday, their total volume exceeded $1 billion. Ethereum accounted for a larger share of forced position closures than bitcoin, despite Ethereum’s significantly smaller market capitalization. Meanwhile, almost all liquidations in bitcoin positions were longs.

Wintermute views this as a moderately positive factor for the market, as liquidations reduced the number of overly optimistic positions whose holders could have become forced sellers during the next leg down.

Altcoins Fell More Than Bitcoin 

According to Wintermute, altcoins have underperformed bitcoin. Analysts expect this trend could persist. In their view, the second half of the recent altcoin rebound was driven mainly by a rotation of existing capital between assets, rather than fresh inflows.

Among major altcoins, ZEC was one of the few to post gains. Wintermute noted that the asset’s resilience amid the broader sell-off may point to sustained demand for the privacy narrative. At the same time, part of that upside has already started to fade.

In the market maker’s view, bitcoin will continue to trade like a risk asset with high sensitivity to liquidity shifts until uncertainty around US monetary policy and regulation of the artificial intelligence sector eases.

The Fed and Macroeconomic Risks

Investor sentiment was also shaped by expectations of further tightening in US monetary policy. Friday’s jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs added versus a consensus forecast of around 60,000. After the data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December rose to 77%, up from 67% a week earlier.

Wintermute believes the market is pricing in this risk appropriately. Analysts estimate that wage growth remains too high for the Fed to have grounds to back away from further tightening. They describe a combination of a rate hike and an equity-market downturn driven by problems in the AI sector as one of the worst-case scenarios for crypto assets: it simultaneously reduces liquidity and investors’ risk appetite.

Experts remain cautious on the market while bitcoin trades below the 50-week moving average. Analysts cite $73,000 as the nearest key level: a daily close below that mark and the 200-day average could open the way to $68,000.

At the same time, a move back above $80,000 and a hold at that level would prompt Wintermute to revise its market view to a more constructive one. An additional condition for a shift in outlook would be a week of net inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs.

Over the medium term, analysts continue to favor specific sectors that show relative resilience during drawdowns. In particular, they highlight privacy, decentralized perpetuals exchanges (perp DEX), and prediction markets. If the decline continues, Wintermute advises focusing on the largest and most resilient projects in these areas, rather than rushing to buy assets at current levels.

As a reminder, earlier experts recorded retail capitulation and whale accumulation.