The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.
Today, On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported that 35.4% of all Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), about 7.12 million coins worth some $521 billion, has a public key that a future quantum computer could potentially crack. Bitcoin trades at $73,227, down 41.9% from its all-time high of $126,080.
While a third of Bitcoin’s total supply sounds alarming, the November selling has come through spot Bitcoin ETFs, not exposed wallets. Those funds posted a $201 million net outflow on November 9, according to SoSoValue. So is the 7.1 million figure a sign of immediate risk, or mostly coins untouched for years?
Glassnode Counts 7.1 Million Bitcoin With an Exposed Public Key
Every Bitcoin wallet runs on a key pair. The private key stays secret and authorizes transactions, while the public key lets others verify them. Most addresses reveal only a scrambled version of the public key until the owner spends.
According to Blockstream, a quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm, a method for solving the math behind those keys, could work backward from the public key to uncover the private key. Glassnode’s count covers coins whose public key is already visible on the blockchain.
Glassnode traces 25.8% of Bitcoin’s supply to address reuse, meaning coins kept in an address that has already sent a payment, and 11.6% to coins held on exchanges. However, these groups overlap, so you can’t add them together for a total.
Traders read this as a supply overhang, coins that could flood the market if someone cracks the keys and sells. Next Technology Holding (NASDAQ:NXTT) cited quantum risk when its board approved selling or pledging about 5,833 Bitcoin in October.
Most of the 7.1 Million Bitcoin Are Old, Reused or Held by Exchanges
The count includes very different types of holdings. In Bitcoin’s early years, transactions often revealed public keys openly. Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake pointed out in October that about 20,000 of those early addresses, linked to Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, hold roughly 1 million BTC. Many of these early coins belong to people who have died or lost access to their keys, so those coins can’t be moved to safety.
Exchange coins work differently, since the exchange manages the keys and must upgrade its security. Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) CEO Brian Armstrong said during the company’s October 29 earnings call that the exchange is upgrading its custody to protect against quantum threats.
Glassnode’s figure reflects exposure rather than theft risk, so it can’t tell which coins’ owners are gone from coins checked every week.
Can Quantum Computers Break Bitcoin Security?
Not yet. IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) CEO Niccolo de Masi said in September that he expects quantum computers to crack Bitcoin keys by 2028, though IonQ sells quantum security products. Blockstream cites a 2025 Global Risk Institute survey that puts the likelihood of this happening within the next decade at 28% to 49%, while Blockstream CEO Adam Back suggests it may take 20 to 40 years.
Addresses that start with “1” or “bc1q” keep their keys hidden until the first transaction. However, once an address sends coins, its key becomes public, exposing any changes or later deposits left there. Taproot “bc1p” addresses, on the other hand, reveal a key as soon as they receive funds, which is why the BIP-360 proposal aims for a Taproot-like output without that exposure.
For people holding their own Bitcoin, one way to reduce exposure is to move coins to an address that has never been used and to let the wallet generate a fresh address for each payment. That fix depends on reliable hardware, as the tampered Ledger devices and the Coldcard hack showed.
BIP-360 is a proposed soft fork that would protect against attacks on long-exposed keys, but its authors caution that protecting keys while a transaction waits to confirm “may require the introduction of post-quantum signatures.” BIP-360 is still a draft with no activation date, while Ripple has already published a quantum-resistant roadmap for its ledger.
Spot ETF Outflows Are Doing More to Bitcoin’s Price Than Quantum Headlines
Spot ETFs hold Bitcoin directly and trade like stocks, so their flows move the price. SoSoValue data shows a net outflow of $643 million on October 30, with cumulative net inflows dropping from $57.96 billion on October 21 to $55.50 billion as of November 9.
Bitcoin trades about 7% below its 20-day average of $78,621 and 11% below its 50-day average of $81,641. However, it holds just above its 200-day average of $73,162, a level many traders treat as key support.
Quantum fear moves Bitcoin’s price only when holders choose to sell, and Next Technology hadn’t sold any of its Bitcoin as of October 31. ETF flows look like the bigger driver, as the $528 million inflow on October 21 lifted Bitcoin to a 30-day-high close of $84,082.
Is Your Bitcoin Among the 7.1 Million a Quantum Computer Could Target?
The 7.1 million figure overstates the threat to active holders and says little about Bitcoin’s next move, because many of these coins are lost, inactive, or held by custodians who can move them. Cumulative ETF inflows back above $57.96 billion would show buyers returning. However, if Bitcoin closes below the 200-day average of $73,162, it could signal a deeper downturn, with or without any quantum news.
If your coins are on an exchange, in a Taproot address, or in an address you’ve sent from before, they’re likely included in Glassnode’s count. Moving them to a new, never-used address costs just one transaction fee and could remove your Bitcoin from the 7.1 million before BIP-360 or any working quantum computer arrives.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
