As the cryptocurrency market's downturn drags on, the majority of altcoins listed on major exchanges have fallen below their long-term trend lines. Darkfost, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said on X on the 7th that about 70% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading below their 200-day moving average. The 200-day line is a key indicator for gauging an asset's long-term price trajectory, and a price falling below it is typically interpreted as a signal of entering a bearish phase.
The mood is the exact opposite of just one month ago. According to the same analysis, as recently as early October, roughly 90% of Binance-listed altcoins were trading above the 200-day line. But as the market rapidly cooled, a wave of tokens broke below the line, and now 7 out of 10 have seen their trend reverse.
Market capitalization has also shrunk sharply. Altcoin market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins grew by about $320 billion from mid-August to late September, but roughly $200 billion has since drained out, giving back about two-thirds of the gains.
Note: Altcoin market cap figures compare the increase from mid-August to late September with the subsequent decline.
Geopolitical tensions, interest rate hikes by major economies, and political uncertainty surrounding the U.S. midterm elections were cited as drivers of the decline. In a climate of waning appetite for risk assets, capital appears to have fled volatile altcoins first.
Bitcoin itself is not out of the woods either. In an earlier weekly report analyzing fund flows after the large-scale Binance hack, CryptoQuant presented a base-case scenario of Bitcoin holding in the $76,000–$78,000 range, but noted that if it closes below $76,300, the 200-day line of $73,205 could become the next downside target. Bitcoin is currently trading around $75,720, having fallen below both its 365-day line ($76,969) and the $76,300 level.
With altcoin weakness now pronounced, market attention is shifting to whether Bitcoin can defend its 200-day line. If the largest cryptocurrency breaks below its long-term trend line, it could trigger further corrections across altcoins, and expectations are growing for a focus on confirming a trend recovery rather than a short-term rebound.
