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The Federal Reserve hiked rates on Sept. 16 and paused on Oct. 28. Markets now price a second hike on Dec. 9. This report examines what that sequence has historically meant for Bitcoin, and how stocks fared alongside it.
CB Pro research · Fed special report
- 0 of 7 Hikes after a pause with Bitcoin higher 30 days later
- 67.5% Polymarket probability of a Dec. 9 hike
- −42% Bitcoin, 2018 midterm to the December hike
The record is one-sided. Bitcoin finished lower 30 days after all seven Fed hikes since 2016 that immediately followed a one-meeting pause, with a median decline of 2.4%. Stocks were split. In 2018, the same calendar produced a 42% drop in Bitcoin between the midterm election and the December hike. (All prices and odds as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2026, unless noted. Historical data through the Nov. 4 close.)
Key findings
- Bitcoin fell in the 30 days after every Fed hike since 2016 that followed a one-meeting pause. The S&P 500 rose in three of those seven instances.
- 2018 is the closest historical match. The Fed hiked 84 days apart, as it would this cycle, and Bitcoin lost 42% from the midterm through the December hike.
- Bitcoin is currently down 11.3% over 30 days, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed $1.2 billion since early October. In past hike cycles where Bitcoin entered down 5% or more, it recovered to a higher price 90 days later just once in seven cases.
- The S&P 500 rose in the year following all five Democratic midterm gains under a Republican president since 1982, though the CLARITY Act’s odds of becoming law currently sit at 3%.
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