SOL is down 17.03% in 30 days and 42.05% in a year even as Alpenglow targets 150-millisecond finality | That's TradingNEWS
Key Points
- Solana fell 6.4% to an $88.83 low, testing its $88.93 200-day average for the first time since August 20.
- Spot SOL ETFs lost $1.18M on November 5 after a record $71.47M weekly outflow; AUM is $1.333B against $1.467B invested.
- A close below $88.93 targets $80 and $74; reclaiming $98.08 opens $103.81, and $108.48 opens $121.96.
Solana traded at $90.07 on Friday after the crypto sell-off pushed it down to its 200-day moving average. On Thursday, SOL fell from $96.97 to an intraday low of $88.83, a drop of 6.4%. It was the first time the token had touched its 200-day line, at $88.93, since August 20. SOL has made only a partial recovery since. It is down 6.05% over seven days, 17.03% over 30 days and 42.05% over 12 months. At $90.07, Solana is worth $53.2 billion. It would need to rise 227% to return to its all-time high of $294.85 from January 2025.
The sell-off started on Wall Street. On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% and entered correction territory, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped more than 12%. After Democrats won both chambers of Congress, investors began to price tighter regulation of artificial intelligence and crypto. Bitcoin fell from above $80,000 on Thursday to $75,531 on Friday, and Ether lost 7.29% to $2,247.74. Crypto liquidations totalled $1.25 billion in 24 hours, most of it from leveraged long positions.
Our thesis is that Solana has the strongest fundamental story among the large altcoins, but the price is set by risk appetite, and risk appetite is falling. On October 21, the Alpenglow consensus upgrade went live on mainnet. It replaced the network’s original consensus system and targets transaction finality of 150 milliseconds, down from 12.8 seconds. On November 5, Schroders, a $1.1 trillion asset manager, said it would tokenize an emerging-markets bond strategy on Solana, and Samsung launched USDC accounts in its wallet app on the Solana network. SOL fell 6.4% that day anyway.
The ETF data shows where support is. US spot Solana ETFs lost a record $71.47 million in the week of October 26 to 30. This week, flows were zero on November 2 and 3, and outflows on November 5 were just $1.18 million, on a day when SOL fell 6.4%. The funds hold $1.333 billion in assets against $1.467 billion of cumulative inflows, so their investors are sitting on losses. They are holding anyway. That patience is the main thing keeping SOL above its 200-day average.
Our base case through the December 9 Fed decision is a range of $80 to $105, with a midpoint of $92. A daily close below $88.93 would confirm the breakdown and target the August lows near $74, 17.8% below the current price. A recovery needs a close above $98.08, where the June trendline bounce stalled. A sustained rally needs a return to $108.48, the price 30 days ago, 20.4% above today’s level.
Solana came into November on a losing streak. The token peaked near $125 in late September and closed at $121.96 on September 28. It then fell week after week. October brought a 19.2% decline, and spot ETFs lost $143.71 million over the month. SOL ended October 27% below its September high, and the week of October 26 to 30 brought the largest weekly ETF outflow since the funds launched.
The first days of November brought a bounce. SOL tested the trendline that has supported it since June, near $89.73, with its relative strength index at 26, deep in oversold territory. Buyers stepped in. On November 3, SOL rose 3.09% to $96.52, a 7.6% rebound from the trendline. Spot ETFs recorded zero net flows on November 2 and 3, and the pause in selling helped the recovery. The rally stalled below $98.08.
The US midterm elections lifted crypto briefly on Tuesday and early Wednesday. Bitcoin recovered above $80,000, and SOL traded as high as $96.97 before the full election results came in. Once it became clear that Democrats had won both the House and the Senate, investors began pricing more scrutiny of AI and crypto, and Bitcoin reversed. Total crypto market capitalization fell 4.66% to $2.55 trillion on Wednesday.
Thursday brought the largest decline. The Nasdaq’s 5.52% fall spread to crypto, and SOL dropped from $96.97 to $88.83 in 24 hours. It fell through its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, and the intraday low of $88.83 sat just below the 200-day simple moving average at $88.93. Solana had closed above that line every day since August 20. By Thursday evening, SOL was at $89.19, just 0.6% above it.
Friday was a test. SOL traded at $91.12 early in the day, slipped toward $89.90 and then recovered to $90.07. The 24-hour range ran from $89.86 to $91.43, much tighter than Thursday’s. The token is holding the 200-day line but cannot get away from it. Prediction markets put a 50% chance on SOL trading above $100 at some point in November and a 44% chance on it trading below $80, a split that reflects the uncertainty.
US spot Solana ETFs launched over the past year and have become an important source of demand. Seven funds trade, under the tickers BSOL, VSOL, FSOL, TSOL, SOEZ, MSOL and GSOL, and several pay part of their staking income to holders. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $1.467 billion. Total assets are $1.333 billion, equal to 2.51% of Solana’s market capitalization.
Flows turned negative in October. The funds lost $143.71 million during the month, roughly 7.5% of their end-September assets. Most of the decline in assets came from price, since SOL fell 19.2% in October. The week of October 26 to 30 brought a record weekly outflow of $71.47 million, the largest since the funds launched. Cumulative inflows had peaked in mid-October and have fallen since then.
This week, the selling stopped. All seven funds recorded zero net flows on Monday, November 2, and Tuesday, November 3. On Wednesday, November 4, flows stayed near zero. On Thursday, November 5, as SOL fell 6.4%, the funds lost just $1.18 million. GSOL accounted for $815,100 of that, and QSOL, a smaller fund, lost $360,900. On a day of heavy selling across crypto, ETF investors did almost nothing.
The gap between inflows and assets explains part of that behaviour. With $1.467 billion invested and $1.333 billion in assets, ETF holders are down $134 million in aggregate. Investors with losses sometimes sell to cut them, but more often they hold and wait for a recovery, especially when the funds pay staking yields. Bitcoin ETFs lost $430.2 million on November 5, Ether and other funds also recorded outflows, and spot XRP ETFs saw zero flows for three straight days. Against that backdrop, Solana’s $1.18 million outflow looks like conviction.
For the forecast, ETF flows are the most important signal for SOL. Patient ETF holders reduce the supply available to sell into a falling market and give SOL a floor that XRP and some other altcoins lack. A return to daily inflows of $10 million or more would show institutions are buying the dip and would support a recovery toward $98.08. A renewed wave of outflows, like the record week of late October, would push SOL through the 200-day line and toward $80.
The Alpenglow upgrade went live on Solana’s mainnet on October 21. It replaced TowerBFT, the consensus mechanism Solana had used since launch, with a new design that targets transaction finality of about 150 milliseconds, down from 12.8 seconds. Slot times, the intervals in which blocks are produced, have been cut to 200 milliseconds. After the upgrade, the Firedancer validator client joined the new consensus and began removing its TowerBFT code.
Finality matters most for institutions. A transaction is final when it can no longer be reversed. On most blockchains, that takes seconds or minutes, which makes them hard to use for applications such as payments, trading and settlement where speed matters. At 150 milliseconds, Solana’s finality would be comparable to traditional payment networks and electronic trading venues. That puts it in a position to handle the kinds of financial applications that banks and asset managers want to build.
Firedancer is the other half of the performance story. It is an independent validator client built from scratch by a trading firm’s engineering team, and it handled up to 1 million transactions per second in testing. Solana currently runs a hybrid called Frankendancer, which combines Firedancer’s networking with the original Agave client’s execution. The full Firedancer rollout continues in phases. Firedancer shipped four mainnet releases in October and launched a bug bounty on October 16 that pays triple for findings related to Alpenglow.
A second independent client improves the network’s resilience. For most of its history, Solana relied on a single validator client, so a bug in that software could halt the whole network. Solana suffered several outages in 2021 and 2022. It has now run for more than 1,000 days without a halt. With Firedancer and Agave running side by side, a bug in one client would not stop the network, which reduces the risk institutions most worry about.
For the forecast, Alpenglow improves Solana’s long-term case but has not moved the price. SOL fell after the upgrade launched, as the October ETF outflows and the broader crypto sell-off dominated. Network upgrades tend to affect prices over months and years, through developer activity and institutional adoption, rather than in the weeks after launch. Alpenglow makes Solana more attractive for financial applications, but the price will reflect that only once the market’s risk appetite recovers.
The institutional news this week has been some of the strongest in Solana’s history. On November 5, Schroders, a global asset manager with $1.1 trillion under management, announced that it would tokenize an emerging-markets bond strategy on Solana in partnership with Centrifuge, a tokenization platform. Tokenization puts ownership records for traditional assets on a blockchain, allowing them to be traded, settled and used as collateral around the clock.
Samsung has brought Solana to consumers. On November 5, Samsung launched USDC accounts within its Samsung Wallet app for eligible US users, running on the Solana network. USDC is a dollar-backed stablecoin, and Samsung Wallet is installed on hundreds of millions of devices. The integration lets users hold and send dollars on Solana without using a separate crypto app. Stablecoin volume on Solana has exceeded $5.25 trillion in 2026.
Other projects are moving onto Solana. ZetaChain, a separate blockchain, has proposed permanently halting its own network on December 9, 2026, and migrating its ZETA token to Solana as an SPL token at a 1:1 ratio. Tokenized money-market funds from one of the largest US banks have also launched on the network. Each of these moves adds activity, fees and users to Solana, and each one reflects a decision by an established institution to build on it.
These developments strengthen Solana’s position as the leading blockchain for payments and tokenized assets outside Ethereum. Low fees, fast finality and high throughput make it suitable for consumer payments and high-frequency trading, which Ethereum’s main network struggles to support without additional layers. A growing list of asset managers, banks and consumer brands choosing Solana validates that position.
For the forecast, institutional adoption creates demand for SOL indirectly. Tokenized assets and stablecoin payments use the Solana network, and every transaction pays a small fee in SOL. Validators stake SOL to secure the network and earn rewards. Growing activity raises the value of the network, but it does not force anyone to buy SOL in large amounts. Like XRP, Solana faces the question of how much of its network’s growth accrues to the token. Unlike XRP, it has staking yields and fee revenue tied directly to usage.
Solana trades as a high-beta version of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin falls, SOL usually falls further. On Thursday, Bitcoin fell 5.97% to $75,695.68 and SOL fell 6.4%. Over 30 days, SOL is down 17.03%, much more than Bitcoin. Over 12 months, SOL is down 42.05%. In a falling market, the token’s beta works against holders.
Bitcoin is under pressure. It fell to $75,200 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-September, after briefly recovering above $80,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin ETFs lost $430.2 million on November 5, the largest single-day outflow of the month. Liquidations reached $1.25 billion in 24 hours across crypto, with $1.12 billion of that from leveraged long positions. In one four-hour window, $818.90 million of longs were liquidated.
The equity link is now direct. Institutions are treating crypto as a risk asset to trim alongside technology stocks rather than as a separate store of value. On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% to 24,315, the S&P 500 lost 4.36% to 7,353.73 and the Dow dropped 1,833 points. Crypto miners that had expanded into AI data centers fell sharply, and shares of crypto exchanges and companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets also dropped.
The Fed adds pressure. Friday’s October jobs report showed payrolls rising by 165,000, more than double the 70,000 consensus, and unemployment falling to 4.1%. Futures now price a 74.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates on December 9. Higher rates make holding non-yielding assets more expensive and strengthen the dollar. Solana’s staking yield partly offsets that, but a yield of 6% to 7% in SOL terms does not protect holders from a 17% price decline.
For the forecast, Bitcoin’s direction will set Solana’s. If Bitcoin holds $75,000 and recovers toward $80,000, SOL can retest $98.08. If Bitcoin breaks below $75,000 toward $70,000, SOL’s higher beta points to $80 and then the August lows near $74. Solana-specific news, such as Breakpoint London from November 15 to 17, can lift the token for a day or two, but over the next six weeks Bitcoin and the Nasdaq will decide the trend.
The election result has changed the regulatory picture for all of crypto. Democrats will control both chambers of Congress when the new session begins on January 3, 2027. A senator who has criticized the industry is expected to chair the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees digital-asset legislation. House Democrats are considering a new crypto market structure bill with stronger investor protections and more oversight from the Securities and Exchange Commission.
For Solana, the classification question matters. The SEC under previous leadership had argued that SOL could be a security, and the token was named in lawsuits against crypto exchanges in 2023. The current administration’s regulators dropped that position and approved spot Solana ETFs. A Democratic Congress cannot reverse those approvals directly, but legislation that gives the SEC more authority over token classification would revive uncertainty that had largely disappeared.
Congressional investigations add to the pressure. Democrats plan to investigate the Trump family’s business dealings, including its crypto ventures. Several of those ventures have links to Solana-based tokens and projects. Hearings and subpoenas do not change rules on their own, but they keep crypto in the political spotlight and make lawmakers less willing to pass industry-friendly legislation.
A divided government limits how far either side can go. The president can still direct federal agencies, and regulators appointed by the administration will remain in place. The ETFs, Schroders’ tokenization project and Samsung’s USDC integration all went ahead under the current framework, and Congress cannot easily undo them without the president’s signature. Stablecoin legislation has already passed, which gives payment applications such as Samsung’s a legal basis.
For the forecast, the regulatory shift removes a source of upside rather than adding a new threat. In the base case, the market had priced a clear federal framework for token classification in 2027. That framework is now less likely and will take longer. Solana’s institutional adoption will continue regardless, because tokenization and stablecoin payments do not depend on a new market structure law. The token loses a political tailwind, and the new Congress takes office in less than two months.
Solana has 590.3 million SOL in circulation out of a total supply of 637.1 million. At $90.07, the circulating market value is $53.2 billion and the fully diluted value is $57.4 billion. Unlike Bitcoin or XRP, Solana has no fixed maximum supply. New SOL is issued as staking rewards, with an inflation rate that started at 8% a year and declines by 15% annually toward a long-term rate of 1.5%. Part of every transaction fee is burned, which offsets some of that issuance.
Staking ties supply to network security. Most SOL is staked with validators, earning rewards in exchange for helping to secure the network. Staked SOL can be withdrawn, but it takes a few days to unlock. High staking participation reduces the supply available to trade, which supports the price. It also means that if stakers unstake and sell in large numbers, the price could fall sharply, though there is little evidence of that this week.
The ETFs hold a small share of supply. At $1.333 billion in assets and a price near $90, the funds hold about 14.8 million SOL, 2.51% of the circulating supply. Several of them stake part of their holdings and pass the rewards to investors, with staking fees ranging from 5% to 25% of rewards depending on the fund. That makes Solana ETFs more attractive than spot funds for tokens that cannot be staked, and it may explain why holders stayed put this week.
Fee revenue depends on activity. Solana’s fees are very low per transaction, often fractions of a cent, but the network processes millions of transactions a day. Stablecoin volume above $5.25 trillion in 2026, tokenized assets and decentralized trading all generate fees. Higher activity raises validator revenue and the amount of SOL burned. If Alpenglow and institutional adoption increase activity, Solana’s fee revenue will rise, which supports the token’s long-term value.
For the forecast, supply is a slow-moving factor. Annual inflation of 4% to 5% adds steady selling pressure from validators who sell rewards to cover costs. ETF demand and staking demand absorb part of that. In a rising market, the supply growth is easily absorbed. In a falling market, it adds to the pressure. Over the next six weeks, supply will not drive the price, but it limits how quickly SOL can recover without new demand.
Solana is trading directly on its most important support. The 200-day simple moving average at $88.93 marks the line SOL held every day from August 20 until Thursday’s intraday low of $88.83. The June trendline, which SOL tested at $89.73 earlier this week, runs through the same zone. A daily close below $88.93 would break both and confirm the downtrend that began in late September.
Below $88.93, the next support is $80, a round number and the level prediction markets see as a 44% chance for November. Below that, the August lows near $74 are the major support. SOL traded near $74 in early August and at $77.35 three months ago, before the rally that took it to $125 in late September. A return to $74 would erase the entire autumn rally. From $90.07, $80 is 11.2% lower and $74 is 17.8% lower.
Resistance starts at $91.43, Friday’s 24-hour high, followed by $96.97, the pre-sell-off high from Wednesday. The key resistance is $98.08, where the rebound from the June trendline stalled on November 3. The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages sit between $95 and $98, so reclaiming that zone would require breaking through several layers of selling. A daily close above $98.08 would open $103.81, the next target.
Above $103.81, the major resistance is $108.48, where SOL traded 30 days ago, and then $121.96, the September 28 close. A move to $108.48 would require a 20.4% gain and would undo most of October’s decline. A move to $121.96 would require a 35.4% gain. The all-time high of $294.85 is not a realistic near-term target.
Momentum is negative but stretched. The relative strength index fell to 26 when SOL tested its trendline earlier this week, deep in oversold territory, and the price sits just above the lower Bollinger Band at $91.39. Oversold conditions often produce relief rallies, as the 7.6% bounce on November 3 showed. In a downtrend, those rallies tend to stall at the first major resistance, which is $98.08. A sustained recovery needs a higher low above $88.93 followed by a close above $98.08.
Read More
- Yen Stalls at 160 Despite a 3% JGB and Tokyo Core CPI at 2.0% — Intervention Sits at 164, Friday's Payrolls Decide 02.09.2026 · TradingNEWS Archive Energy
- Jfrog Erases Thursday’s 13.57% AI Sell-Off as 124% Net Retention — $88–$110 Range Into February 06.11.2026 · TradingNEWS Archive Stocks
- Ethereum ($2,230) Tests Its 200-Day Line After the Post-Election Rally Fails at $2,447 — $2,450 Rebound Target in Play 06.11.2026 · TradingNEWS Archive Crypto
- NG Reclaims $3 as 21.2 Bcf/d LNG Demand Meets a Mild November, 3,801 Bcf in Storage — $2.80–$3.25 Range Into the December Expiry 06.11.2026 · TradingNEWS Archive Commodities
- Nasdaq Chip Bounce Meets a 4.90% Yield, S&P 500 Edges Up, Dow Slides as NET Rips 20% 06.11.2026 · TradingNEWS Archive Markets
- USDJPY Recovers to 158.53 as Strong US Jobs Data Meets a Hawkish BoJ & Tokyo’s Intervention Line — 156–159.50 Range Into December 06.11.2026 · TradingNEWS Archive Forex
November has historically been a good month for Solana. Since 2020, SOL has gained in four of six Novembers, with a median return of 3.11%. A gain matching that median would lift SOL from $91.62 to $94.47. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own, but in a market where sentiment is negative, a historical tendency toward November gains offers some support for the base case.
Breakpoint London, Solana’s annual developer conference, runs from November 15 to 17. Breakpoint usually brings announcements on network upgrades, institutional partnerships and new applications. This year’s conference follows Alpenglow’s launch and will likely include updates on Firedancer’s full rollout, tokenization projects and payment integrations. Conferences rarely move prices on their own, but a strong set of announcements could give SOL a short-term lift.
Tuesday’s US consumer price index is the first major macro event. After the strong jobs report, inflation data will decide whether the Fed raises rates on December 9. A hot core reading would lock in the hike, strengthen the dollar and push risk assets lower. A soft reading would lower the hike odds from 74.8% and give crypto room to recover. The Fed decision on December 9 itself will set the tone for the rest of the year.
ETF flow data is the most important crypto-specific signal. Daily flow reports show whether institutions are buying or selling. Two days of zero flows and a $1.18 million outflow on a 6.4% down day point to holders waiting. A shift to inflows of $10 million or more would show institutions are adding positions. A return to outflows on the scale of late October would push SOL through support.
ZetaChain’s migration to Solana on December 9 and further institutional announcements are background positives. Washington is the background negative: committee assignments for the new Congress will be confirmed in the coming weeks, and Democrats’ plans for crypto legislation will become clearer. None of these events alone will set the trend, but together they will decide whether $88.93 holds.
Our forecast covers the period to the Fed decision on December 9, with three scenarios.
The base case, at 50% probability, is a range of $80 to $105, with a midpoint of $92. In this scenario, Bitcoin trades between $72,000 and $82,000 as the equity market settles and the Fed hikes on December 9 as priced. ETF flows stay close to zero, with small inflows and outflows that cancel out. Breakpoint London produces positive headlines without changing the trend. SOL tests the 200-day line at $88.93 several times, breaks below it briefly toward $80, and recovers toward $98.08 without closing above it.
The bearish case, at 30% probability, is a fall to the August lows near $74, 17.8% below the current price. This would follow a hot US CPI print that pushes the December hike odds above 90%, a Bitcoin break below $75,000 toward $70,000, and further falls in technology stocks. ETF outflows would return on the scale of late October, and leveraged long positions would be liquidated in a cascade. A daily close below $88.93 would trigger technical selling, and the June trendline would give way.
The bullish case, at 20% probability, is a recovery to $108.48, 20.4% above the current price. This would need a soft US CPI number that lowers the December hike odds, a Bitcoin recovery above $80,000 and a return to daily ETF inflows. Strong announcements at Breakpoint London and more institutional tokenization projects would add support. A close above $98.08 would open $103.81 and then $108.48, undoing most of October’s decline.
From $90.07, the risk-reward is skewed lower. The bullish target is 20.4% away, the bearish target 17.8% away, and the bearish scenario carries 10 percentage points more probability. The base-case midpoint of $92 is 2% above the current price. The signals that will decide which scenario plays out, in order of importance, are Bitcoin’s hold of $75,000, daily Solana ETF flows, Tuesday’s CPI, the 200-day average at $88.93, and the Fed decision on December 9.
Solana at $90.07 is sitting on its 200-day moving average after falling 6.4% on Thursday to an intraday low of $88.83. It is down 17.03% over 30 days, 42.05% over 12 months and 27% from its late-September high near $125. The trigger was Wall Street: a 5.52% Nasdaq decline, a 12% drop in semiconductors and $1.25 billion in crypto liquidations. SOL fell more than Bitcoin, as it usually does in a falling market.
The fundamentals are the strongest they have been. Alpenglow went live on October 21, targeting 150-millisecond finality, down from 12.8 seconds. Firedancer is rolling out and the network has run for more than 1,000 days without a halt. Schroders is tokenizing a bond strategy on Solana, Samsung has launched USDC accounts on the network, and ZetaChain plans to migrate its token there. Stablecoin volume on Solana has topped $5.25 trillion this year. None of it has stopped the price from falling.
The ETF data offers some support. After a record $71.47 million weekly outflow in late October, the funds recorded zero flows on November 2 and 3 and lost just $1.18 million on November 5, a day when SOL fell 6.4%. Holders are under water, with $1.333 billion in assets against $1.467 billion invested, and they are holding anyway. That patience keeps SOL above its 200-day line. A Democratic Congress, more SEC oversight and a Fed priced at 74.8% for a December hike weigh against it.
Our call is neutral-bearish. We would sell rallies into $96 to $98, below the June-trendline rebound high of $98.08, with a first target of $80, 11.2% below the current price, and an extended target of the August lows near $74 if Bitcoin breaks $75,000. A daily close above $98.08 would neutralize the view, and a close above $108.48 would invalidate it and open $121.96. The base-case range into the December 9 Fed decision is $80 to $105. Solana’s network is getting stronger, but until Bitcoin and the Nasdaq stabilize, the price will follow risk appetite.
