PiCK

Summary

  • The altcoin market is posting a decline rate nearly twice that of Bitcoin, fueling concern over leverage and a lack of liquidity.
  • Major altcoins including Ether, XRP and Zcash have logged double-digit plunges, while large-scale token unlocks and exchange deposits are highlighting selling pressure.
  • Analysts are warning of broader weakness and the risk of further corrections across altcoins through year-end, while also saying that any deeper selloff could offer a buying opportunity in some blue-chip altcoins and specific themes.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Weakness in the altcoin market is spreading across the board. With Bitcoin (BTC) trading below the key psychological threshold of $70,000 and concerns mounting over further Federal Reserve tightening, major altcoins are falling faster than Bitcoin. Analysts say altcoins, already pressured by leverage and thin liquidity, may be more vulnerable to another bout of declines.

About 270 of Top 300 Tokens Fall; Ether and XRP Post Double-Digit Losses

The altcoin market was broadly weak, aside from a handful of tokens lifted by coin-specific catalysts. Losses spread from major altcoins to both large-cap and smaller tokens, underscoring a clear risk-off mood across the market.

As of Nov. 13, about 270 of the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization had fallen over the past week, according to global digital-asset data site CoinMarketCap. Only about 30 posted gains. With roughly 90% of the market declining, the downturn has spread widely across the sector. Much of the short-term rebound seen after the U.S. midterm elections has also been given back.

Major altcoins posted double-digit losses. Ether (ETH) fell 13.5% over the past week. Since the start of November, U.S. spot Ether ETFs have recorded net outflows of about $695.9 million, adding to supply pressure. The Ethereum Foundation has also delayed applying the Hoodi testnet for the next Glamsterdam upgrade while it conducts additional checks on compatibility issues involving some existing smart contracts. Ether recently slipped to around $2,000, its lowest level since August.

XRP fell 15.2% over the same period. It recently dropped to $1.0216, the lowest since August. U.S. spot XRP ETFs also saw about $18 million of net outflows over the two days of Nov. 9 and Nov. 10, adding pressure to investor sentiment.

Losses were steeper in tokens hit by coin-specific supply and flow factors. Zcash (ZEC) plunged 28.4% over the past week. The token had extended gains around the Nov. 6 NU7 upgrade, but profit-taking emerged afterward. The decline appears to have deepened as leveraged long positions were liquidated in derivatives markets.

Ethena (ENA) fell 17.5% over the week. On-chain analysis showed about 217.5 million ENA from an address linked to the Binance hack was sold and swapped into Ether. Another 134 million ENA was unlocked earlier this month. The combination of large token transfers and fresh supply heightened concern over potential selling pressure.

Bitway (BTW) dropped 33.0% over the week. About 101 million BTW was unlocked on Nov. 2, worth about $114 million at the time. Pump.fun (PUMP) also fell 15.9% after a large tranche allocated to the team and existing investors was unlocked on Nov. 12, sharpening concerns over expanding supply.

Worldcoin (WLD) declined 16.2% over the week. On-chain data showed a large holder recently deposited about 56.15 million WLD into several centralized exchanges. The large exchange inflows added to concerns over potential selling pressure.

A few tokens, however, diverged from the broader market on individual catalysts. Ozone Chain (OZO) surged after its spot listing on global crypto exchange BingX on Nov. 10, rising 62.9% over the week. Jupiter (JUP) gained 3.9% in the same period after unveiling four new products, including an asset basket and vaults, ahead of Solana Breakpoint.

Altcoins Fall Twice as Fast as Bitcoin as Leverage Liquidations Hit Hard

Analysts say the leverage-heavy altcoin market may be more exposed to further downside, and broader weakness in digital assets could persist through year-end.

Recent losses in altcoins have been nearly twice as large as Bitcoin's. According to global crypto exchange Bitfinex, the median decline among 12 major altcoins since Sept. 21 was 27.8%, about 1.9 times Bitcoin's 14.8% drop over the same period. Bitfinex said leverage is more concentrated in the altcoin market, while some speculative capital is shifting into other high-risk assets such as products tied to SpaceX and Anthropic. If Bitcoin tests $70,000, declines in major altcoins could widen by another 8% to 10%, it added.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 19 on the day, remaining in the “extreme fear” zone. Sentiment across the altcoin market remains deeply subdued.

Swissblock, a digital-asset analytics firm, said some altcoins are showing stronger relative performance against Bitcoin, but that alone is not enough to call a trend reversal. In a bear market, that kind of relative strength can also appear near short-term tops in Bitcoin or during periods of sharply rising volatility. Swissblock added that if Ether's relative weakness deepens, declines across altcoins could spread quickly again.

Some analysts also see a risk that weakness across the altcoin market will last through year-end. Digital-asset analyst Benjamin Cowen said each recent rebound has been smaller than the last, and the market's reaction after breaking below key support has also weakened. He added that the bearish pattern is likely to persist at least through the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting. If this correction runs its course, conditions for a broader market recovery could improve in 2027.

Uncertainty over the macro and policy backdrop is also weighing on altcoins. Within the Fed, discussion has recently expanded beyond another rate increase in December to include the possibility of a half-point move. After Democrats secured majorities in both chambers in the U.S. midterm elections, the possibility of congressional probes into digital-asset businesses linked to President Donald Trump's family and prediction markets has also increased. Investors are watching whether political clashes over digital-asset policy intensify again.

Still, some market participants say any deeper selloff could create buying opportunities in select higher-quality altcoins. Crypto market maker Wintermute said Bitcoin's next downside level could be $68,000 now that it has fallen below a major support line. If the pullback deepens, altcoins that rallied the most since mid-September are likely to face larger corrections. Wintermute added that privacy and decentralized perpetual futures exchange themes have held up relatively well even in the downturn, and blue-chip assets tied to those themes may be worth watching if the market drops further.

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter [email protected]

Minseung Kang