Summary

  • Global credit ratings firm Fitch Ratings said Bitcoin fell only 6% despite the massive Binance hack, indicating stronger market resilience.
  • Fitch said the growing dispersion of the trading ecosystem, a 67% surge in trading volume, and $40.9 billion in daily volume suggest a shock at a single exchange is now less likely to trigger a broader market collapse.
  • Still, it said cybersecurity vulnerabilities, exchange outages, and asset losses from large-scale hacks remain key risk factors.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin fell far less than it did in past crises despite the massive Binance hack, in what Fitch Ratings said points to growing market resilience.

In a report on Nov. 9, the global credit ratings firm said shocks in the crypto trading market appear to have eased as the market structure has become deeper and more diversified. It added that the impact of operational disruptions at any single exchange has diminished as the trading ecosystem has become more decentralized.

The Binance hack resulted in the theft of about $6.3 billion in crypto assets across multiple blockchains. The stolen assets included 18,270 Bitcoin, worth about $1.5 billion at the time. Although Binance temporarily suspended withdrawals and trading, Bitcoin fell only about 6% in the 10 hours after the incident was first disclosed.

That was a relatively modest decline compared with earlier market shocks. Bitcoin plunged 35% in a single day during the early stage of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, fell 14% during FTX's collapse in 2022 and dropped 21% in the 2015 Bitstamp hack.

A jump in trading volume also suggested the market's capacity to absorb liquidity shocks has improved. Bitcoin's daily trading volume rose 67% to $40.9 billion during the hack. Fitch said the expansion of trading venues has created a structure in which other markets can provide liquidity even when one exchange runs into trouble.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao also emphasized the crypto market's resilience after the incident. In a post on social media platform X, he said cooperation matters more than internal industry conflict when liquidity across exchanges remains intact. He added that the crypto ecosystem should remain decentralized while staying united in responding to crises.

Still, Fitch said cybersecurity vulnerabilities and exchange outages remain major risks for the crypto market. The report said the episode shows a more mature market structure, but does not mean the risks of asset losses and operational disruption from large-scale hacks have been resolved.

Fitch said the broader base for Bitcoin trading and the dispersion of liquidity across multiple platforms have made it less likely that a shock at one exchange will trigger a sharp marketwide breakdown.

Suehyeon Lee