Analysis: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Keep Selling at a Loss, Underscoring Correction Signal

• The on-chain analyst said Bitcoin long-term holders are moving coins below their average purchase price, signaling that market correction signals remain in place.
• He said LTH-SOPR stayed below 1 for eight straight days, while long-term holder supply (16.3 million BTC) fell by 171,700 BTC over the past month.
• He said both indicators support a correction scenario and that whether LTH-SOPR returns above 1 is key, while stressing that a past rebound does not indicate the future price outlook.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin long-term holders continue to move coins at prices below their average purchase cost, reinforcing signs of a market correction, according to an analysis.

On Nov. 10, on-chain Bitcoin analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote in a newsletter that the long-term holder spent output profit ratio, or LTH-SOPR, stood at 0.94, staying below 1 for an eighth straight day.

LTH-SOPR measures the average profit or loss on Bitcoin moved by long-term holders. A reading below 1 means they are, on average, moving Bitcoin at prices below their acquisition cost. Adler said the drop in LTH-SOPR over the past month was notable even compared with moves seen over the past year.

Long-term holder supply also declined. Holdings by long-term holders now stand at about 16.3 million BTC, down 171,700 BTC over the past month.

Still, not all of that decline necessarily came from selling. Bitcoin is classified as long-term holder supply once it has been held for more than 155 days, meaning the metric can change depending on whether coins are moved.

Both indicators support the current correction scenario, Adler wrote. The key question, he said, is whether LTH-SOPR can climb back above 1, signaling an end to loss realization by long-term holders.

He added that LTH-SOPR reached a level similar to the current one on Aug. 22, when Bitcoin was trading at $77,075. Bitcoin then rose 12.4% over the following month, though he stressed that this was only a historical example and does not imply anything about the future price outlook.

Minseung Kang