Bitcoin is still under pressure as the broader risk-off move hits crypto and technology stocks, but analyst CryptoCon believes the clock on the current BTC bear market may be running out.
His latest take is based on what he calls the Quartercent Cycles Theory, a long-term S&P 500 cycle model that maps recurring market highs and lows across several decades.
The model currently points to one key conclusion: the present stock-market weakness may be temporary, while Bitcoin’s bear market could have only a few months left in time.
What you'll learn 👉
CryptoCon’s Chart Still Points to a 2028 S&P 500 High
CryptoCon’s chart tracks major S&P 500 turning points dating back to the 1920s.
The current section of the cycle places the market after the 2024 high and before another important peak around 2028.
That means he does not view the present stock decline as the start of a multi-year collapse.
Instead, he sees it as a correction inside a larger cycle that still has room to run.
That view is being tested by a brutal selloff in technology stocks. The Nasdaq dropped 5.5% on Thursday, its worst session in 19 months, as investors dumped crowded AI trades and reassessed the huge amount of capital being spent on data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Roughly $2.5 trillion was erased from Nasdaq market value during the rout.
CryptoCon’s argument is that this volatility does not break the longer cycle yet.
Why He Thinks Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Nearing Its End
The Bitcoin part of the thesis is more interesting.
CryptoCon says BTC’s bear market is “finally nearing its end in time,” with only a few months potentially remaining.
That does not mean he is calling the exact price bottom today.
His point is about time, not necessarily price.
Bitcoin can still fall, retest lows or trade sideways before the cycle window expires.
That distinction matters because bear markets often end through a combination of price exhaustion and time exhaustion. A market can stop making dramatic new lows even while sentiment remains terrible.
The current environment certainly looks stressed.
The AI selloff has spread globally, with margin calls and forced deleveraging hitting technology-heavy markets across the U.S. and Asia. Reuters reported that investors are questioning both AI valuations and the returns on massive infrastructure spending.
Bitcoin is being dragged into the same risk-off trade.
The Chart Does Not Say Bitcoin Must Bottom Immediately
This is the part traders should not skip.
CryptoCon’s cycle model does not provide a precise Bitcoin price target for the bottom.
It only argues that the current bearish phase is approaching a time window where previous cycles have begun transitioning.
That leaves room for more volatility first.
If Bitcoin continues following high-beta technology stocks lower, the next few months could still be uncomfortable even if the larger cycle thesis eventually proves correct.
The more useful confirmation would be Bitcoin beginning to hold higher lows while risk appetite stabilizes.
Until then, the model remains a long-term timing signal, not proof that the bottom is already in.
CryptoCon’s bigger message is simple: today’s AI panic and stock-market weakness look dramatic, but he does not believe they mark the end of the broader cycle.
And if his Bitcoin timing framework is right, the final part of this bear market may now be measured in months rather than years.
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