[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Macro investor James Lavish said bitcoin could reach $400,000 to $500,000 by mid-2029.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on Nov. 10 that Lavish said on BMTV last month he is sticking with his earlier view that bitcoin’s bottom has already formed.

Lavish said his bullish 2029 outlook has not changed even as the likelihood of interest rate hikes has increased and technology stocks have wobbled. He said there is no reason to believe the existing structure has changed based only on short-term interest rate variables.

On the price range, he cited a power law. Lavish said that if a pattern emerges in which prices move one standard deviation above the average line, bitcoin could match the $400,000 to $500,000 range. He added that it would be surprising if bitcoin is not in the $200,000 to $300,000 range by mid-2029.

The remarks reaffirm his existing stance of placing more weight on long-term cycles than on short-term market fluctuations. He judged that even though interest rate paths and weak technology shares are weighing on risk assets broadly, bitcoin does not break away from its long-term structure on short-term rate jitters alone.

Lavish also said the macro environment should be considered when explaining bitcoin’s moves. He cited fiscal dominance, a $2 trillion U.S. government deficit, a Federal Reserve balance sheet that is growing again, hot consumer price index readings and the possibility of a rate hike in December. He said that even if bitcoin reacts in the short term to rate expectations, the formation of a long-term peak should be viewed in connection with a larger cycle.

He said the key point is whether the outlook is maintained, rather than market reactions or actual price moves. He said the focus will be whether bitcoin follows the halving and macro cycle path he outlined even if short-term rate shocks continue.