Summary

  • Anthropic is discussing a Nasdaq IPO at a reduced valuation of about $1.5 trillion, down from $2 trillion.
  • The IPO could raise as much as $100 billion, and the company is said to be considering additional funding through debt, including bonds, after securing equity capital.
  • A successful fundraising would reduce financing concerns across the AI ecosystem, while failure could increase the burden of server orders.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Anthropic is lowering its valuation target as it moves ahead with an initial public offering, aiming for a Nasdaq listing before Thanksgiving on November 26. The company had initially sought a $2 trillion valuation, but recent discussions have centered on about $1.5 trillion.

Foreign media reported on November 9 that Anthropic will begin its roadshow for institutional investors on November 10. Lead underwriter JPMorgan is set to hold a presentation for potential investors on November 13. The offering price also appears likely to be determined around that time.

Investor resistance to the lofty valuation comes as sentiment toward technology stocks has weakened and AI investment costs remain steep. Some institutional investors have mentioned a range of $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, according to foreign media reports.

A $1.5 trillion valuation would amount to about 43 times Anthropic's actual revenue over the past year. The company needs to prove it can maintain rapid growth, absorb computing costs and generate profit. The listing is intended to secure long-term investment capital, according to the report.

The cost burden is also heavy. Anthropic has committed about $900 billion to purchase or lease graphics processing units, or GPUs. Of that total, about $70 billion is due within a year, with the rest to be paid over a longer period. Foreign media reports said Anthropic holds about $150 billion in cash and liquid investment assets.

The IPO's fundraising size has been discussed at as much as $100 billion. After securing equity capital through the offering, Anthropic is said to be planning to raise additional funds through debt, including bonds.

Hana Securities said successful fundraising would ease financing concerns across the AI ecosystem. If the listing is delayed or the offering size is reduced, the burden tied to server orders could increase, it said.

OpenAI is targeting a listing next year. Anthropic's IPO will serve as a benchmark for OpenAI's market debut.

Minseung Kang