[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Anthropic's move to pursue an initial public offering (IPO) that implies a corporate valuation of up to $1.405 trillion has raised expectations it could affect short-term fund flows in the cryptocurrency market.
Decrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Nov. 11 (local time) that Anthropic plans to raise up to $64.4 billion by selling 825 million Class A shares in a price range of $70 to $78 per share. The offering price is to be set on Nov. 18, and trading will begin on Nasdaq on Nov. 19 under the ticker symbol 'ANT'.
Markets are focusing on the allocation for retail investors. The retail allocation is about 20 percent, roughly double what is typical for retail in an offering of this size. Some in the market see IPO subscription funds partly replacing money that would otherwise flow into bitcoin or memecoins.
The valuation is $916.0 billion to $1.02 trillion based on the basic share count and up to $1.405 trillion on a fully diluted basis. That is lower than the $2.0 trillion discussed in September. After a recent pullback in artificial intelligence-related stocks, major investors are viewing an appropriate valuation at around $1.0 trillion. The bookbuilding is also said to have filled the offering without oversubscription.
Crypto derivatives markets reflected a higher valuation. ANT is trading at about a $1.8 trillion valuation on the decentralised exchange (DEX) Hyperliquid. Daily trading volume is $100 million and open interest is $200 million.
Along with the IPO, a private placement of non-voting Class N shares worth $26.0 billion will also proceed. Under the structure, Anthropic's computing infrastructure suppliers buy shares at the same price as the offering price.
Anthropic plans to raise a total of $84.6 billion through the IPO and the private placement. It plans to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, mainly to secure computing resources.
Performance figures were also disclosed. Anthropic's revenue over the most recent 9 months surged to $33.2 billion from $2.5 billion a year earlier. Operating loss in the same period was $1.26 billion. Net loss was tallied at $104.0 billion, but most of it came from non-cash costs related to convertible bonds. Confirmed spending commitments stand at $900.9 billion, of which $70.7 billion is to be executed within the next 12 months.
In the crypto market, how big a liquidity burden the IPO will actually be has emerged as a variable. Still, the retail allocation in this deal is worth about $12.9 billion, smaller than SpaceX's $22.0 billion when it listed in June.
When SpaceX listed on June 12, bitcoin fell 29 percent and then rebounded 37 percent from its low after sliding to $58,500 on June 30. Some in the market say that if the same pattern repeats, bitcoin could fall another 5 percent and a substantive bottom could form within the next 1 to 2 days.
The market has already been seeing volatility. Bitcoin traded around $74,000, while ethereum fell 2 percent to $2,055. Solana slipped 1 percent to $84, and HYPE fell 2 percent to $73. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows of $9.5 billion, and spot ethereum ETFs saw $1.3 million flow out.
Ultimately, market attention is focused on whether Anthropic's listing is a new negative factor or something already priced in. Bitcoin has recently fallen about 15 percent from its early October peak. With an exchange hacking incident, concerns about AI capital expenditure and U.S. political variables also overlapping, views are that whether the listing event amplifies an additional shock or becomes a catalyst to ease short-term supply-demand uncertainty will determine the crypto market's short-term direction next quarter.
