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Arthur Hayes has a new villain for Bitcoinâs short-term outlook. It isnât the Fed, a regulator or a rogue exchange. Itâs the share count at the worldâs most hyped AI and space companies.
In his latest essay, titled âD is for Dilutionâ and released on November 5, 2026, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO argues that massive equity unlocks tied to SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could squeeze dollar liquidity. In his view, that is bad news for Bitcoin in the near term, and potentially great news further out.
The dilution math Hayes is worried about
Start with SpaceX. According to Hayes, the company likely faces roughly 50% additional dilution by June 2027.
The driver is approximately 8.6 billion shares set to unlock in that window, mostly stemming from Elon Muskâs vesting.
SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX in June 2026. The IPO was priced at $135 per share, raised about $75 billion and valued the company at $1.77 trillion.
Anthropicâs early backers may have it worse. Hayes estimates those investors could see as much as 83% dilution by June 2027.
The company has already filed its S-1 and is targeting a public debut in November 2026. OpenAI, meanwhile, has pushed its IPO into 2027, which keeps a third giant listing in the pipeline.
How share unlocks become a Bitcoin problem
First, a flood of new shares is expected to weigh on the stock prices of these companies. Lower prices, he argues, would dampen enthusiasm about AI profitability more broadly.
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Second, weaker equity valuations could raise borrowing costs for AI-focused businesses. Hayes suggests that stress might spread to data centers and chipmakers, either through wider credit spreads or debt investors simply getting cold feet.
Third, and most important for crypto, falling equity values could slow the growth of bank balance sheets. When banks expand less, fewer dollars circulate through the system. Hayes notes this would coincide with a cooling in AI-related lending and securities financing.
Bitcoin has historically traded as a liquidity sponge, soaking up excess dollars when theyâre plentiful. Shrinking dollar liquidity, then, is the setup Hayes flags as an immediate bearish signal for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
He has made a related argument before. Hayes previously said AI capital expenditures had absorbed approximately $1.5 trillion of M2 money supply growth since late 2022.
The long game: waiting for the Big Print
Hayes contends that if AI-sector credit stress turns into a genuine crisis, central banks and governments could step in with easing measures or fiscal support. He calls that scenario âthe Big Print.â
So the road map he sketches is a dip before a rip. Near-term pain from tighter liquidity, followed by a potential policy response that could push capital back toward hard-capped assets.
His own fund is acting accordingly. As of November 5, 2026, Maelstrom is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signs that liquidity is improving before jumping back in.
What this means for investors
For crypto traders, the essay offers a calendar of sorts. The key dates cluster around Anthropicâs targeted November 2026 debut and the June 2027 horizon Hayes cites for both SpaceX and Anthropic dilution.
If Hayes is right, the signals to watch arenât on crypto charts at all. Theyâre in AI credit spreads, the borrowing costs of data center operators and chipmakers, and the pace of US bank balance sheet growth.
For equity investors, the takeaway is more direct. Headline valuations like SpaceXâs $1.77 trillion tell only part of the story when billions of additional shares may be on the way.
