Bitcoin is trading roughly 6% above the level where one of the most closely followed ETF analysts expects it to settle, even as a fresh wave of technology-stock selling spills into digital assets.
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast that the largest cryptocurrency appears to be carving out "a nice base somewhere in the 60s" - a range that sits just below current prices and only about one support level away from being tested. He offered no timeline for the floor and attached no conditions to it.
His remarks came after a bruising stretch for crypto. Bitcoin has lost about 15% over the past week and roughly 22% over the past month, leaving it near the bottom of its 30-day range. The coin changed hands near $64,000 in the latest session, according to the market data cited in the analysis, after touching $68,000 earlier in the week.
A 'Speed Bump,' Not a Turning Point
Balchunas framed the latest cross-asset selloff, which began with a slide in Nvidia (NVDA) shares, as one more episode in a long series of market panics. He described it as "the 280th nervous breakdown that the markets have had in the past couple of years," adding that such drops tend to be "algo-driven, headline-driven" and possibly "short-lived."
He said he was "unfazed" by the damage to the artificial-intelligence trade, calling it "more like a speed bump" unless corporate earnings run into "a real problem over the next couple quarters." Nvidia posted its worst week since April of last year, falling about 13%, after Jensen Huang stepped down as chief executive on Thursday.
Equity ETF investors, in his telling, barely flinched. "The Vanguard people, they buy it always," he said. "You cannot shake them."
Bitcoin funds have behaved differently. Balchunas estimated year-to-date net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs at about $1.4 billion - a figure that differs from the $1.75 billion tracked by SosoValue. Either way, he argued the number is small relative to the scale of the price decline. "I mean, it's almost flat. Considering the downturn and the negativity, that's pretty good," he said. "You're treading water in a year."
The analyst also pushed back on the idea that fund flows drive the coin's price. In his view, inflows and outflows mostly follow trends that have already formed and reflect investor sentiment, though large institutional trades can occasionally move the market.
Charts Still Point Down
The technical picture offers little comfort to holders. Bitcoin trades well below both of its main moving averages, with the 50-day line near $77,000 and the 200-day line close to $76,000. Price below both signals a downtrend, and the averages now act as ceilings that any rebound would have to clear. The 50-day has also drifted toward the 200-day, a sign that recent weakness is weighing on the broader trend.
Daily momentum is deeply oversold. The relative strength index, a 0-to-100 gauge, has fallen to about 20, well under the 30 threshold that marks oversold conditions. Extremes like that often precede relief bounces, but they are not buy signals on their own - prices can stay stretched for days in a strong decline. The MACD remains below its signal line, and trend-strength readings confirm sellers are still in charge.
On the chart, support sits around $62,000, the last cushion before Balchunas's range. A clean break would expose the next level near $59,000, at the low edge of his predicted base. Overhead, the first resistance stands near $75,000, just under both averages; reclaiming it would ease selling pressure, and a push through $80,000 would undo most of the bearish setup.
Note: Price levels are approximate and drawn from the technical analysis cited in the report.
The Gold Precedent
Balchunas reached for history to make his case for patience. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the pioneering fund that made bullion easy to own, grew quickly to roughly $76 billion in assets before entering a long flat stretch. It took about eight years to regain its earlier peak - and it then more than doubled.
His point is that a lengthy wait did not kill the gold ETF's long-term growth, and Bitcoin could follow a similar path. The coin has gained acceptance in traditional finance and has secured a lasting place among large asset managers' products, so the current correction may not mark the end of its adoption story.
He also drew a contrast in how the two asset classes move. "It takes the elevator up and the stairs down," he said of Bitcoin, while stocks take "the stairs up and the elevator down." Because Bitcoin generates no cash flow, it is harder to hold through a slump and its price rests largely on investors' expectations and confidence. "Once the sentiment turns, though, it can go quickly because there's no new supply," he added.
His advice to investors is to think in five- to 10-year horizons rather than chase daily swings, arguing that constant trading produces less predictable results than a long-term approach.
What to Watch
The near-term path hinges on whether buyers defend the $62,000 area. A relief bounce that holds that support and lifts price toward first resistance would support the view that the selloff is passing. A daily close below it would cancel that scenario and put the $60,000s floor to a direct test. The larger risk sits outside crypto: further stress in technology stocks could drag Bitcoin through support before any rally takes hold.
Separately, Scott Melker, the podcast's host, flagged weakening technicals of his own. He noted that Bitcoin has slipped below its 50-week moving average on the weekly chart and said the 200-week average now deserves close attention. The consolidation zone around $67,000 matters for any recovery, and the coin's earlier pattern of higher lows and higher highs has broken down - a sign buyers have lost their previous grip.
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