Ethereum held on Binance has fallen to roughly 2.9 million ETH, the smallest balance in close to five years, according to an on-chain analysis published Sunday by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost. The decline came as ether traded near $1,830, down about 4% in 24 hours and roughly 19.5% over the past week, after touching a session low of $1,713.65.
The exchange's estimated ether stash has shrunk nearly 42% since July 2025, when it stood above 5 million ETH as the token approached $5,000. Ether has since given up more than 63% from that peak. Darkfost said Binance's 30-day average of net ether flows has stayed negative for most of the stretch, meaning more coins left the exchange than arrived.
That pattern, the analyst argued, is consistent with accumulation: buyers picking up tokens at depressed prices and moving them into self-custody or decentralized finance strategies such as staking and yield farming. "This sustained trend of net outflows further supports the accumulation hypothesis," Darkfost wrote, while cautioning that withdrawals alone do not prove fresh purchases.
The drawdown has been building for weeks. On November 3, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha put Binance reserves at 3.08 million ETH as of November 2, down from about 4.9 million at the 2025 high. Across all exchanges tracked by the firm, balances had slipped to 14.5 million ETH, compared with nearly 35 million in 2020.
Exchange balances are an imperfect gauge, however. Binance's own proof-of-reserves update showed customer ether holdings rising over a shorter window: 3,482,001 ETH on November 12 versus 3,446,090 on November 4, a gain of 35,911 tokens, or 1.04%, within a snapshot covering 198 cryptocurrencies. Customer USDT balances fell by about 928.2 million tokens over the same eight days. The disclosure followed the exchange's statement that assets lost in an October 29 hack had been restored, and was published outside its usual monthly schedule.
Fund flows have compounded the pressure. US spot Ethereum ETFs bled about $398.9 million in net outflows between November 9 and 13, according to Farside Investors. Monday accounted for the heaviest single-day redemption at $184.6 million, followed by $144.8 million on Wednesday and $70.5 million on Thursday, before a modest $2.3 million inflow on Friday ended four straight negative sessions.
Selling has also surfaced in wallets linked to the Ethereum Foundation. Onchain Lens reported that an address it associates with the Foundation sold 7,500 ETH over four days for about 14.52 million USDS, including a final 2,500 ETH swap through CoW Swap that yielded 4.597 million USDS, with proceeds routed to a multisignature Safe wallet.
Not all large holders have been sellers. Lookonchain flagged a wallet that withdrew 34,601 ETH, worth about $73.75 million at the time, from Binance on November 9 after more than two years of inactivity, though the transfer confirms only the withdrawal, not a purchase.
Technically, the picture is mixed. Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto said ether and the ETH/BTC ratio are tracing similar formations that could mark a longer-term floor, provided bitcoin steadies. "The setup is here, now we just need $BTC to behave," the analyst wrote. Trader Joep Gerla called the current slide ether's third oversold signal this year, pointing to February and June, when comparable conditions preceded rallies toward $2,400 and $2,800. Ether's session low near $1,714 sits below the $1,790-$1,814 band traders have watched as support, with resistance seen between $1,838 and $1,868.
Broader crypto sentiment remains fragile. Bitcoin fell below $66,000 on Saturday, the first time under that level since August, and was trading around $64,300, down more than 5% in 24 hours. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the market resembles mid-2018, when the industry was exhausted and many participants exited, and warned it "could wander through the wilderness" before settling. He still sees a "big buying opportunity" ahead, though the timing is hard to call, and expects a new breakthrough in decentralized finance to lead the recovery, as it did in 2018.
CryptoQuant data showed large bitcoin wallets adding about 47,000 BTC while mid-sized holders shed roughly 50,500, and its 30-day apparent demand gauge fell to -284,000 BTC, the weakest since April 2025. The firm identified support at $63,000, $59,800 and the 2026 low of $57,700, with $73,000 now acting as resistance. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee, meanwhile, attributed the slump to several forces, including the Nvidia selloff, positioning ahead of Anthropic's IPO and the return of customer access to crypto after the Binance hack, while maintaining that the industry remains in a "supercycle."
For ether holders, the shrinking exchange float cuts both ways. Fewer coins on trading venues can tighten supply and amplify rallies once demand returns, but the same outflows can reflect investors retreating to cold storage rather than buying, and the persistent ETF redemptions suggest institutional appetite has not yet turned. With price below the watched support band and bitcoin still searching for a floor, the reserve data is likely to remain a key signal traders watch for signs of a durable bottom.
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