Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. As of November 5 it was trading at about $79,700 (around ¥12.75 million), and its sharp rebound from the low-¥12 million range has stalled near $80,000. With a short-term correction underway, technical indicators show bearish signals and signs of a rebound side by side.
A technical report published by Rakuten Wallet on November 6 uses a "matrix method" that scores six approaches — pattern analysis, moving averages, the Ichimoku Cloud, Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI — on a five-point scale and averages them to gauge market strength. The latest composite score came in at 2.0 on the five-point scale, remaining at a bearish-leaning level.
According to the report, the market rebounded near the lower limit of a descending channel but was pushed back at the upper limit and extended its decline. On the Ichimoku Cloud, a "three-role reversal" has completed and the price has broken below the cloud, putting it in a bearish phase. Bollinger Bands also show a sell signal from a "bandwalk" in which the price tracks the lower band.
On the other hand, RSI, which indicates oversold conditions, has shown a bullish divergence (a contrary move). While candlesticks have strengthened their downward direction, RSI has been flat or slightly upward, suggesting a bottom may be near. MACD's two lines, though pointing down, are also turning flat, hinting at a similar signal.
On the support side, the ¥11.6 million area is watched as a "strong support zone" where three elements converge: September's low, the lower limit of the descending channel and the 200-day moving average. The report said "one can imagine a scenario in which the price touches this level once and rebounds."
Note: A score of 5 is strongest and 1 is weakest. The composite score is the average of the six methods.
Overseas analysis also reflects the lack of clear direction. According to crypto media CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin remains within an ascending channel tracing a recovery from June's low of $58,000 (around ¥9.28 million), but it was rejected twice near the upper limit of $87,000 (around ¥13.92 million) in September and early October, and most recently it has been making lower highs and lower lows.
Recently, after falling into the $75,000–$78,000 demand zone, buying emerged and the price rebounded. However, $80,000, where the ascending channel's centerline sits, stands as resistance. If that level is reclaimed, a move toward the $87,000 supply zone comes into view; on the other hand, a clear break below $75,000 would make the channel's lower limit of $73,000 (around ¥11.68 million) the next support line, and some point to the risk of a deeper decline into the low $60,000s as the recovery structure breaks down.
On-chain indicators also warrant caution. The 30-day exponential moving average of the adjusted SOPR (aSOPR, which excludes transactions shorter than one hour) calculated by CryptoQuant has fallen to about 1.003 from a peak of about 1.013 in October. The indicator shows profit-taking when above 1 and loss-selling when below, and during the 2024–25 uptrend, 1 functioned as a support line. If the price closes below $75,000 while the indicator is under 1, the bearish scenario would strengthen further.
The market's focus is on whether the support zone in the ¥11.6 million range can be defended. Even with bearish technical signals dominant, the divergences in RSI and MACD suggest selling pressure has run its course, leaving room for a short-term rebound. Confirming a bullish turn will likely hinge on reclaiming the $80,000 level and aSOPR avoiding a break below 1.
