Bitcoin (BTC) outperformed the S&P 500 in half of U.S. trading sessions over the 90-session period through Nov. 4, ending a stretch in which it lost more sessions than it won.
The 50% figure measures how often Bitcoin beat the index in a session, not its cumulative return over the full period. Bitcoin’s session win rate had not been above 50% since March 2025. Glassnode wrote, “Should the win rate climb above 50% and hold there, it would show Bitcoin regaining strength against equities.”
A separate historical comparison covers seven of 26 U.S. midterm elections since 1922, excluding the 2026 election. In those seven cases, Democrats won both the House and Senate while a Republican was president. The S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% in the following three months, 17.5% over six months and 15.5% over one year.
After Democrats captured both chambers in 2026, U.S. markets rebounded from an overnight selloff tied to the results, while the CLARITY Act’s outlook faced uncertainty. The market rebound and CLARITY Act uncertainty formed part of the immediate reaction to the election.
Enna Lee
Enna Lee reports on investing and digital-asset markets for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to [email protected].
