Ben Cowan sees Bitcoin falling below $57,000 during Trump's term, while suggesting that a selloff accompanied by surging volume could establish stronger conditions for the first half of 2027.
His outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin repeats the declines seen in previous U.S. midterm election years and records the high-volume capitulation he associates with bear-market bottoms.
In an Altcoin Daily interview on November 12, the cryptocurrency analyst said he expected Bitcoin to trade below $57,000 during Trump's term. He acknowledged that his forecasts do not always prove correct and outlined bullish alternatives depending on whether, and when, another decline occurs.
Cowan cited the midterm-year trading patterns of 2014, 2018 and 2022 as the basis for his bearish view. Bitcoin generally declined in the first quarter, summer and fourth quarter, he said. In 2018 and 2022, the final fourth-quarter declines marked the end of those bear markets. With first-quarter and summer declines already recorded this year, he sees a similar sequence developing.
He also questioned whether Bitcoin's recent move above $87,000, which cleared a previous high, confirmed a sustained advance. Although breaks above earlier highs and the 50-week moving average preceded further gains in past cycles, he said comparisons with 2019 and 2023 were less useful during a midterm year. Such comparisons could become more relevant in 2027, the year before the halving.
Cowan identified capitulation on sharply higher trading volume as a key condition for a bottom. A new price low that resets on-chain indicators could create a more bullish first half of 2027, he said. Previous bear markets, including 2019–2020, ended with volume spikes, whereas he said the current market had yet to experience that kind of selling.
He also drew parallels with 2018, when regulatory concerns surrounding major technology stocks and a hawkish Federal Reserve weighed on markets. He described concerns about AI regulation and a hawkish Fed as similar pressures today. He noted that additional rate increases anticipated in 2018 did not materialize, suggesting that the future rate path could again differ from market fears.
Timing remains central to his outlook. Cowan said a near-term move below $57,000 would arguably need to occur before year-end. Without that decline, he said he and other market participants could turn bullish. He also pointed to past instances in which a sufficiently deep shakeout was followed by a strong bull market.
Riza Dagoc
Riza Dagoc reports on regulation, investing and the digital-asset business for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to [email protected].
