Bitcoin’s 30-day combined demand estimate fell to -348,000 BTC on Nov. 10, the lowest level this month. Spot demand indicators improved, but shrinking demand for perpetual futures outweighed that.
The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, reported on Nov. 12 that on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant analysed demand indicators for spot and perpetual futures and found they moved in different directions from Nov. 7 to 10.
Over that period, a proxy indicator for spot demand improved by about 29,500 BTC, while the demand estimate for perpetual futures worsened by about 63,500 BTC. The deterioration in the futures indicator was about 2.15 times the spot improvement. The combined demand estimate fell by about 34,000 BTC over three days.
The improvement in the spot indicator does not mean demand has turned to an uptrend. It means the pace of contraction has eased. Even if weakness in the spot market eased, a larger contraction in the futures market kept the market in a “red zone” where both indicators remained negative.
There are limits to interpreting -348,000 BTC as actual selling volume or liquidation 규모. CryptoQuant said the figure is a demand estimate expressed in BTC and does not mean that an equivalent amount of bitcoin left exchanges or was sold in the spot market.
It is also necessary to consider that the indicator is calculated on a 30-day moving basis. Each day, the latest day is reflected while the oldest day is excluded from the calculation. Therefore, an improvement of about 29,500 BTC in the spot indicator does not mean actual spot buying increased by that amount over the period.
The key ahead is whether improvement in the spot indicator and stabilisation in the futures indicator appear together. The possibility of an overall demand recovery can be assessed only if the spot demand indicator moves closer to zero while the contraction rate in perpetual futures slows. Whether the combined demand estimate stops falling is also a key point to watch.
On the price front, a long-term support level around $74,000, which has recently been tested again, is seen as a key variable. If the spot indicator continues to improve, futures contraction eases and the price holds its recent low, the likelihood of forming a range could increase. If futures demand continues to worsen, it is expected to weigh on market stabilisation.
Bitcoin’s 30-Day Demand Estimate Hits −348K BTC as Spot Improves “What I want to see next is spot continuing toward zero and the drag from perps easing enough for the combined line to flatten.” – By @RugaResearch https://t.co/hfCMC2NYi5
