IBIT recorded 5 straight outflow sessions totalling $1.04B as institutions cut Bitcoin alongside tech stocks | That's TradingNEWS
Key Points
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $430.2M on November 5, led by FBTC’s $199.87M and IBIT’s $104.97M; none of 12 funds rose.
- IBIT holds $61.01B and 802,600 Bitcoin; its NAV of $43.02 is 13.3% below the end-2025 level of $49.61.
- IBIT faces resistance at $45.28–$45.86 and support at the $41.31 200-day average, equal to Bitcoin at $73,000.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $430.2 million on Thursday, November 5. Not one of the 12 funds took in new money. The largest outflow came from Fidelity’s FBTC at $199.87 million, followed by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, at $104.97 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC at $49.9 million. The day before, the funds had recorded a $74.6 million inflow, their only positive session of the month. Across the first four trading days of November, net outflows totalled $869.8 million.
Bitcoin fell with the flows. It dropped from above $80,000 on Wednesday to an intraday low of $75,114 on Thursday, down 5.22% in 24 hours, and traded at $75,531 on Friday. That is its lowest level since mid-September and 40.2% below its all-time high. IBIT shares fell 5.07% on Thursday to close at $43.03, with a net asset value of $43.02. On Friday, IBIT traded at $42.88, down 0.36%, in a range of $42.27 to $43.13.
Our thesis is that spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned from a steady source of demand into a channel that carries equity-market risk directly into Bitcoin. When the funds launched in January 2024, they brought in buyers who held through volatility. In November 2026, the same funds are being sold alongside technology stocks. Thursday’s outflows came on the day the Nasdaq fell 5.52% and the S&P 500 lost 4.36%, after Democrats won both chambers of Congress and investors priced tighter regulation of AI. Institutions trimmed Bitcoin exposure as part of the same de-risking.
The scale of the selling, though, is small next to the size of the funds. IBIT held net assets of $61.01 billion on November 5, according to iShares. Its shares outstanding fell to 1,418,160,000 from 1,422,600,000 the day before, a decline of 0.31%. The fund holds about 802,600 Bitcoin. A week of outflows has barely dented that position. Most IBIT holders are sitting through the decline, which limits how far forced selling can go.
Our base case through the December 9 Fed decision is an IBIT range of $40.00 to $46.50, equivalent to Bitcoin between $70,700 and $82,200. A move back to the September 30 NAV of $47.38, 10.5% above the current price, would need a return to daily inflows and Bitcoin above $83,700. A continued run of outflows and a Bitcoin break below $70,000 would send IBIT toward $38.50, 10.2% lower.
The outflows started before the election. On Monday, November 2, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $398.6 million as Bitcoin traded below $77,000 and crypto markets sold off ahead of the midterms. On Tuesday, November 3, outflows continued at $115.6 million. IBIT was part of the selling on both days. The fund’s run of outflows extended to five consecutive sessions, totalling $1.04 billion.
Wednesday brought a short break. Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 as votes were counted and the market initially read the outcome as positive for crypto. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $74.6 million net inflow, and Ether ETFs also took in new money. IBIT shares rose to $45.33 on Wednesday, with a NAV of $45.32, up 3.08%. The rebound didn’t last.
Thursday reversed it. Once it became clear that Democrats had won both chambers of Congress, technology stocks fell sharply, and crypto followed. Bitcoin lost 5.22% in 24 hours. All 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded zero or negative flows. FBTC led with $199.87 million of outflows, IBIT lost $104.97 million and GBTC lost $49.9 million. Ether ETFs lost nearly $100 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $75.20 million of that. Combined crypto ETF outflows exceeded $1 billion for the week.
The pattern is consistent with institutions treating Bitcoin as a risk asset. Outflows were largest on days when equities fell and smallest, or positive, when they rose. On Thursday, Bitcoin ETF outflows of $430.2 million coincided with the Nasdaq’s 5.52% decline, the Philadelphia semiconductor index’s 12% drop and $1.25 billion of crypto liquidations. On Wednesday, the $74.6 million inflow came alongside a brief recovery in risk sentiment.
For the forecast, daily flow data is the most important signal for Bitcoin and IBIT. Four outflow days in five sessions, with $869.8 million gone, show that institutional demand has weakened. A single inflow day on Wednesday showed that buyers return when sentiment improves. The direction of flows over the next two weeks will tell whether this is a temporary de-risking or the start of a longer withdrawal.
IBIT is the largest spot Bitcoin ETF and one of the most successful ETF launches in history. The fund began trading on January 5, 2024, and tracks the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate, New York Variant. Its sponsor fee is 0.25% a year. On November 5, it held net assets of $61,011,445,002 and had 1,418,160,000 shares outstanding. Each creation basket of 40,000 shares holds 22.64 Bitcoin, which works out to 0.000566 Bitcoin per share.
At the November 5 benchmark price of $76,017.83, IBIT’s holdings equal about 802,600 Bitcoin. That is close to 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million. On June 30, according to the fund’s quarterly filing, IBIT held 734,261 Bitcoin at a cost of $61.0 billion, an average of $83,081 per Bitcoin. The fund has added about 68,000 Bitcoin since then, much of it during the summer rally.
IBIT’s net assets have fallen with the price. At the end of 2025, net assets were $67.40 billion and the NAV was $49.61. On September 30, net assets were $67.03 billion and the NAV was $47.38, with 1,414,760,000 shares outstanding. Since then, shares outstanding have risen by 3.4 million, a small net inflow over the period, while the NAV has dropped 9.2% to $43.02. The decline in assets since September has come from price, not redemptions.
Trading volume shows how actively IBIT is used. On Thursday, 68.67 million shares changed hands, against a 30-day average of 41.42 million, an increase of 66%. The fund’s 30-day median bid-ask spread is 0.02%, among the tightest of any ETF. High volume and tight spreads make IBIT the main vehicle for institutions that want to adjust Bitcoin exposure quickly. That liquidity is why IBIT’s flows matter so much for Bitcoin’s price.
For the forecast, IBIT’s size works in two directions. A fund holding 802,600 Bitcoin can absorb large daily outflows without changing its overall position much: Thursday’s $104.97 million outflow was less than 0.2% of assets. But if outflows build into the billions, as they did in the five-session streak totalling $1.04 billion, IBIT’s redemptions become a significant source of Bitcoin supply. Authorized participants sell Bitcoin to meet redemptions, and that selling hits the spot market directly.
IBIT’s price tracks Bitcoin almost exactly. On Tuesday, November 3, IBIT closed at $44.05, up 1.62%. On Wednesday, it rose to $45.33, a NAV gain of 3.08%, as Bitcoin recovered above $80,000. On Thursday, it opened at $44.94 and closed at $43.03, down 5.07%, with the NAV down $2.30, or 5.08%, to $43.02. After-hours trading added 0.14% to $43.09.
Friday brought a quieter session. IBIT opened at $42.73, fell to $42.27 and recovered to $42.88 by early afternoon, down 0.36% from Thursday’s close. The day’s high was $43.13. Volume through midday was 30.19 million shares, below the daily average of 44.51 million, which suggests the selling pressure eased after Thursday’s surge. The price of $42.88 implies a Bitcoin price of about $75,760.
IBIT’s year has been negative. The fund’s NAV total return was negative 8.48% for the year as of November 4. From the end-2025 NAV of $49.61 to the November 5 NAV of $43.02, the decline is 13.3%. The 52-week price range runs from $32.84 to $60.36, and the 52-week NAV range from $33.19 to $60.17. The current price sits 29% below the 52-week high and 31% above the low.
Moving averages frame the technical picture. IBIT trades below its 50-day simple moving average of $45.86 and its 50-day exponential moving average of $44.79. It is below the 200-day exponential moving average of $44.06 but above the 200-day simple moving average of $41.31. The 50-day averages sit above the 200-day averages, so the medium-term trend is still up, but the short-term trend has turned lower.
For the forecast, IBIT’s levels map directly to Bitcoin. Each $1 move in IBIT corresponds to roughly a $1,770 move in Bitcoin. The 200-day simple moving average at $41.31 is equivalent to Bitcoin near $73,000. A break below it would confirm a deeper correction. A recovery above the 50-day simple moving average at $45.86, equivalent to Bitcoin near $81,000, would show that the November sell-off has run its course.
The trigger for this week’s outflows came from Wall Street. On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% to 24,315, entering correction territory more than 10% below its October 6 record. The S&P 500 lost 4.36% to 7,353.73, its worst day since April 2025, and the Dow fell 1,833 points. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped more than 12%. Japan’s Nikkei fell 6.7% overnight and Korea’s KOSPI dropped 8.7%, triggering a circuit breaker.
The selling followed the midterm elections. Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and investors feared tighter regulation of AI and data centers. AI-linked stocks had driven much of the market’s gains in 2026, and a regulatory threat to that story hit them hard. Bitcoin miners that had expanded into AI data centers fell sharply. Shares of crypto exchanges and companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets also dropped.
Institutions that hold both technology stocks and Bitcoin ETFs reduced both. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are held by hedge funds, registered investment advisers, pension funds and wealth managers, many of whom manage Bitcoin exposure alongside equities in diversified portfolios. When equity volatility spikes, risk models tell those managers to reduce positions across the portfolio. Bitcoin ETFs, which can be sold instantly with tight spreads, are among the easiest positions to cut.
Crypto regulation adds a second layer. A senator who has criticized the industry is expected to chair the Senate Banking Committee, and House Democrats are considering a market structure bill with more oversight from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Democrats also plan to investigate the Trump family’s business dealings, including its crypto ventures. Those developments don’t threaten the ETFs directly, but they reduce the political support that helped Bitcoin rally in 2025.
For the forecast, the institutional selling is a risk-management decision rather than a judgment on Bitcoin. That matters because risk-management selling reverses when volatility falls. If the Nasdaq stabilizes, as Friday’s partial rebound suggests, institutions will rebuild positions over time, and ETF flows will turn positive again. If the equity sell-off deepens, the de-risking will continue, and Bitcoin ETFs will keep losing money until volatility subsides.
Friday’s jobs report raised the cost of holding Bitcoin. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 165,000 new jobs in October, more than double the 70,000 consensus. September’s figure was revised up to 60,000 from 29,000, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month. The dollar index jumped 0.63% to 102.12, its biggest one-day gain in seven weeks.
The report put a December Fed hike back on the table. Futures now price a 74.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates on December 9. The Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, the first increase since 2023, and held in October by a 10–2 vote, with two members preferring a hike. US consumer prices rose 3.7% in September, and the October CPI report is due on Tuesday. The two-year Treasury yield is at 4.54% and the ten-year at 4.90%.
Higher rates hurt Bitcoin in two ways. They raise the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no yield, since investors can earn close to 4% on one-week dollar deposits. They also strengthen the dollar, and Bitcoin has traded inversely to the dollar for most of its history. A Fed that keeps hiking into 2027 would make it harder for Bitcoin to recover its September levels, let alone its all-time high.
Bitcoin ETF holders are more rate-sensitive than early crypto investors. Institutions that hold IBIT compare it with other assets in their portfolios, including Treasury bills, investment-grade bonds and equities. When short-term rates rise, the hurdle for holding Bitcoin goes up. That shows up in ETF flows: weeks with rising yields have tended to bring outflows, and weeks with falling yields have tended to bring inflows.
For the forecast, the Fed is a headwind until December 9. A hot CPI print on Tuesday would lift the December hike odds above 90% and push Bitcoin toward $70,000, with IBIT near $39.62. A soft print would lower the odds and support a recovery toward $80,000, with IBIT near $45.28. After the decision, the Fed’s projections for 2027 will set the tone for the start of next year.
IBIT was not the largest source of Thursday’s outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $199.87 million, nearly twice IBIT’s $104.97 million, even though IBIT holds far more Bitcoin. Grayscale’s GBTC lost $49.9 million. The remaining funds, including those from Bitwise, ARK and 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, Franklin and others, made up the rest of the $430.2 million total. No fund recorded a net inflow.
FBTC’s larger outflow points to differences in who owns each fund. FBTC is distributed heavily through Fidelity’s own brokerage platform, which serves wealth managers and individual investors. IBIT has a larger share of institutional holders, including hedge funds and asset managers who trade it actively. On days of broad de-risking, wealth-management platforms often execute model portfolio rebalancing at the same time, which can concentrate outflows in one fund.
GBTC continues to lose assets. It converted from a closed-end trust to an ETF in January 2024 with far more assets than any other fund, but its fee of 1.5% a year, six times IBIT’s 0.25%, has driven steady redemptions ever since. GBTC outflows are a long-running trend rather than a response to this week’s events. They remove Bitcoin from the market’s largest legacy holder and shift it to cheaper funds or to direct holdings.
The distribution of flows matters for price. When outflows are concentrated in one or two funds, authorized participants sell Bitcoin to meet those redemptions. When outflows from one fund are offset by inflows to another, the net effect on Bitcoin’s spot market is small. Thursday was the worst case: every fund was flat or negative, so the full $430.2 million of redemptions translated into Bitcoin selling pressure.
For the forecast, broad-based outflows are more concerning than concentrated ones. A day on which every fund loses money shows that the selling reflects market-wide de-risking rather than a shift between providers. If outflows stay broad, Bitcoin will keep falling. If inflows return to some funds while others keep losing money, the selling pressure will ease even if total flows stay slightly negative.
IBIT’s holders bought much of their Bitcoin at higher prices. On June 30, the fund’s 734,261 Bitcoin had a cost of $61.0 billion, an average of $83,081 each, while their market value was $43.40 billion. Bitcoin traded below $60,000 at the end of June, its lowest level of the year. Since then, the fund has added roughly 68,000 Bitcoin during the summer and early-autumn rally, much of it at prices between $75,000 and $100,000.
That cost basis creates a zone of overhead supply. Investors who bought IBIT at prices equivalent to Bitcoin between $80,000 and $90,000 are now sitting on losses. When the price recovers toward their purchase price, some will sell to break even. That selling pressure caps rallies. The $80,000 level, which Bitcoin briefly regained on Wednesday before falling back, sits at the bottom of that zone.
The trust’s own figures show the scale. At the end of 2025, IBIT’s NAV was $49.61, equivalent to Bitcoin near $87,600. On September 30, the NAV was $47.38, equivalent to Bitcoin near $83,700. The current NAV of $43.02 is 13.3% below the end-2025 level and 9.2% below the September 30 level. Investors who bought at any point since the start of the year, apart from the summer lows, are under water.
Underwater holders behave differently from profitable ones. When investors are sitting on gains, they tend to sell into weakness to lock in profits, which adds to selling pressure in a falling market. When they’re sitting on losses, they tend to hold and wait for a recovery, which reduces selling pressure during declines but adds it during rallies. This week’s IBIT outflows, small relative to the fund’s size, fit that pattern.
For the forecast, IBIT’s cost basis sets resistance between $45.28 and $47.38, equivalent to Bitcoin between $80,000 and $83,700. Rallies into that zone will meet holders selling to break even. Below the current price, the 200-day simple moving average at $41.31, equivalent to Bitcoin near $73,000, is the first major support. Holders with deeper losses are less likely to sell, so the selling pressure should ease as the price falls further.
The outflows were not limited to Bitcoin. Spot Ether ETFs lost nearly $100 million on November 5, with BlackRock’s ETHA accounting for $75.20 million. Ether fell 7.29% to $2,247.74 on Thursday, more than Bitcoin. Spot Solana ETFs lost $1.18 million, a small amount relative to their $1.333 billion in assets. Spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows for three consecutive sessions, from November 3 to 5.
The pattern across crypto ETFs shows that institutions cut their largest and most liquid positions first. Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, with tens of billions of dollars in assets and tight spreads, are the easiest to sell in size. Smaller altcoin ETFs, with assets in the low billions, saw much smaller outflows. That reflects both their smaller size and the fact that some of them pay staking yields, which gives holders a reason to stay.
Altcoins have fallen further than Bitcoin despite smaller ETF outflows. Solana is down 17.03% over 30 days and XRP is down 18.1%, both more than Bitcoin. Altcoins have thinner spot markets and more leveraged positions, so forced liquidations in futures markets hit them harder. ETF outflows are one source of selling pressure, but derivatives liquidations matter more for smaller tokens.
The total crypto ETF outflow for the week exceeded $1 billion. That is a large number but small relative to the market. Total crypto market capitalization fell 4.66% to $2.55 trillion on Wednesday, and spot Bitcoin ETFs alone hold more than $100 billion in assets. Weekly outflows of $1 billion represent less than 1% of ETF assets. The outflows are significant as a signal of sentiment but not large enough to drive a collapse on their own.
For the forecast, Bitcoin ETF flows lead the rest of the crypto ETF market. When Bitcoin ETFs turn positive, Ether and altcoin ETFs tend to follow within days. A return to inflows into IBIT and FBTC would be the first sign that institutions are rebuilding crypto exposure, and that would support altcoins as well as Bitcoin. Until then, the entire crypto ETF complex will trade as an extension of the equity market.
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Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $75,114 on Thursday and $75,200 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-September. Those lows form the first support zone. A daily close below $75,000 would confirm the breakdown and target $73,000, the level equivalent to IBIT’s 200-day simple moving average at $41.31. Below that, $70,000 is a round number and a major psychological support.
Resistance starts at $80,000, which Bitcoin reclaimed briefly on Wednesday and lost on Thursday. Above that, $80,452 was Wednesday’s trading level and $80,980 marked the upper Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart. The 50-period exponential moving average on that chart sat at $78,817 earlier in the week. A daily close above $80,000 would show the sell-off has stalled. A close above $83,700, equivalent to IBIT’s September 30 NAV, would show the market has recovered most of its autumn losses.
The broader trend has weakened. Bitcoin is 40.2% below its all-time high and down for the year. It fell below $60,000 at the end of June, rallied through the summer and has given back part of that rally since late September. The summer low and the all-time high frame a wide range, and the current price sits closer to the middle than to either end.
Derivatives positioning has been cleared but not fully reset. The $1.25 billion of liquidations on Thursday, with $1.12 billion from leveraged longs, removed a large amount of leverage from the market. In one four-hour window, $818.90 million of long positions were liquidated. That kind of forced selling usually exhausts itself quickly. Once leverage is cleared, prices tend to stabilize, which Friday’s narrower trading range suggests has started to happen.
For the forecast, IBIT’s levels mirror Bitcoin’s. Bitcoin at $75,114 corresponds to IBIT near $42.52, and Friday’s IBIT low of $42.27 is equivalent to Bitcoin near $74,700. Bitcoin at $80,000 corresponds to IBIT at $45.28. Bitcoin at $70,000 corresponds to IBIT at $39.62. Traders who prefer the ETF to the underlying can use these conversions directly, with a small adjustment over time for the 0.25% annual fee.
Five developments would turn Bitcoin ETF flows positive. The first is a stable equity market. Institutions cut Bitcoin exposure as part of broad de-risking, and they will rebuild it when volatility falls. A week in which the Nasdaq holds its Thursday lows and the VIX volatility index declines would give risk managers room to add positions again.
The second is a softer Fed outlook. Tuesday’s CPI report will decide whether the December hike stays near 74.8% or falls. A core reading below 0.3% on the month would lower the hike odds, weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. Inflows have tended to follow weeks of falling Treasury yields, and a soft CPI would likely bring that.
The third is a shift in the regulatory picture. The new Congress takes office on January 3, and Democrats’ plans for crypto legislation will become clearer over the coming weeks. If the market structure bill turns out to be less restrictive than feared, or if a bipartisan deal emerges, regulatory risk would fall. If Democrats push for broad SEC authority over tokens, crypto would stay under pressure into 2027.
The fourth is Bitcoin’s price itself. ETF flows follow price as much as they lead it. A recovery above $80,000 would bring momentum investors back and convert some outflows into inflows. A break below $70,000 would likely accelerate outflows as investors who bought during the summer cut losses. The relationship is reflexive: falling prices cause outflows, and outflows push prices lower.
The fifth is new buyers. Wealth-management platforms have been adding Bitcoin ETFs to model portfolios through 2026, and pension funds and endowments have begun allocating small amounts. Those buyers allocate on a slower schedule than hedge funds and tend to buy dips rather than sell them. Their steady demand is the main reason IBIT’s shares outstanding have risen since September despite the price decline, and it would support flows once the de-risking ends.
Our forecast covers the period to the Fed decision on December 9, with three scenarios.
The base case, at 50% probability, is an IBIT range of $40.00 to $46.50, equivalent to Bitcoin between $70,700 and $82,200, with a midpoint of $43.25. In this scenario, the equity market stabilizes, the Fed hikes on December 9 as priced, and Bitcoin ETF flows alternate between small inflows and small outflows. Daily flows stay within $200 million either way. Bitcoin tests $75,000 several times and recovers toward $80,000 without closing above it for more than a few days.
The bearish case, at 30% probability, is a fall to $38.50, 10.2% below the current price, equivalent to Bitcoin near $68,000. This would follow a hot US CPI print that pushes the December hike odds above 90%, a further fall in technology stocks and more broad-based ETF outflows on the scale of Thursday’s $430.2 million. IBIT would break below its 200-day simple moving average at $41.31, and holders who bought in the summer would start to cut losses. Bitcoin would break $70,000.
The bullish case, at 20% probability, is a recovery to $47.38, 10.5% above the current price, equivalent to Bitcoin near $83,700. This would need a soft US CPI print, a stable or rising equity market and a return to daily ETF inflows of $200 million or more. IBIT would reclaim its 50-day simple moving average at $45.86, and Bitcoin would close above $80,000. Wealth-management and pension buying would add steady demand, and momentum investors would return.
From $42.88, the risk-reward is balanced with a slight downside tilt. The bullish target is 10.5% away, the bearish target 10.2% away, and the bearish scenario carries 10 percentage points more probability. The signals that will decide which scenario plays out, in order of importance, are daily Bitcoin ETF flows, the Nasdaq’s direction, Tuesday’s CPI, Bitcoin’s hold of $75,000, and the Fed decision on December 9.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $430.2 million on November 5, with every one of the 12 funds flat or negative. November’s first four sessions brought $869.8 million of net outflows, and IBIT recorded five consecutive outflow sessions totalling $1.04 billion. Bitcoin fell from above $80,000 to $75,114, and IBIT dropped 5.07% to $43.03 before trading at $42.88 on Friday. The selling came alongside a 5.52% Nasdaq decline, $1.25 billion in crypto liquidations and a strong jobs report that pushed December Fed hike odds to 74.8%.
The size of the funds limits the damage. IBIT held $61.01 billion and about 802,600 Bitcoin on November 5. Its shares outstanding fell 0.31% in a day and remain above their September 30 level of 1,414,760,000. Most holders are sitting through the decline rather than selling. They bought at an average cost above $83,000 for the June 30 holdings and are under water, which reduces selling in a falling market but caps rallies.
ETFs now transmit equity risk into Bitcoin. Institutions that own both technology stocks and Bitcoin ETFs cut both when volatility spikes, and that will continue until the Nasdaq stabilizes. A Democratic Congress, more SEC oversight and a Fed that may keep hiking into 2027 add headwinds. A softer CPI print, a calmer equity market and returning wealth-management demand are the forces that would turn flows positive.
Our call is neutral-bearish for IBIT and Bitcoin. We would sell IBIT rallies into $45.28 to $45.86, equivalent to Bitcoin between $80,000 and $81,000, with a first target of $40.00, 6.7% below the current price and equivalent to Bitcoin near $70,700. A daily close below the 200-day simple moving average at $41.31 would extend the target to $38.50. A close above $47.38, the September 30 NAV, would invalidate the view. The base-case range into the December 9 Fed decision is $40.00 to $46.50. Until daily ETF flows turn consistently positive, the funds will add to Bitcoin’s volatility rather than dampen it.
