U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds bled another $95 million on Tuesday, but the shrinking size of the daily withdrawal is drawing more attention than the red ink itself. The figure marks the fourth straight session of net redemptions and brings total outflows since the start of November to roughly $1.6 billion, according to SoSoValue data.
The pace has cooled sharply. Daily outflows ran at $430.2 million on Nov. 5 and $411.9 million on Nov. 6 before easing to $201 million on Monday, according to flow figures from Farside Investors. Tuesday's tally was the smallest of the run.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) remained the main source of selling. The fund shed about $78 million on Tuesday, its eighth consecutive losing session, and has now lost roughly $1.73 billion since Oct. 30. Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT) was the lone bright spot among the major issuers, pulling in about $20 million, far too little to offset the broader retreat.
Note: Figures from Farside Investors and SoSoValue as cited in market reports. Dates reflect the trading sessions described.
The money is not leaving markets altogether. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that all 17 of the top U.S.-listed ETFs by inflows over the previous five trading sessions held equities, with roughly $12 billion a day flowing into the category. The leaders included Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF (VOO), Invesco's Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV).
That rotation is the more troubling signal for crypto holders, because it points to a deliberate decision to cut risk rather than a wholesale flight to cash. "The money is not leaving the market; it is switching asset class," the flow analysis concluded.
Demand Gauges Flash Warning
Underlying demand indicators remain weak even as ETF selling moderates. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index dropped to 20 on Monday from 90 on Oct. 13, a reading the analytics firm described as "extremely bearish." Its measure of apparent Bitcoin demand contracted by 284,000 BTC over 30 days, the fastest pace since March 2025.
The firm noted that similar conditions have historically preceded local bottoms, while cautioning that a deeper correction cannot be ruled out. It flagged $73,200 as a key support level.
Bitcoin changed hands near $73,700 to $74,000 on Thursday morning, down about 1% over 24 hours and roughly 5.2% over the prior seven days, according to CoinGecko. The token is hovering just above its 200-day moving average of about $73,125, a line many funds treat as the dividing line between an intact and a broken trend. The 20-day average sits at $77,740 and the 50-day at $81,141, leaving buyers from October underwater on average.
Sentiment reflects the strain. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 28 on Thursday, its third straight day in fear territory, though not yet at the extreme-fear threshold of 25.
Macro Backdrop Adds Pressure
The ETF retreat is unfolding against a hawkish turn in rate expectations. October consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month and core prices 0.3%, a tenth of a point above forecasts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point hike in December should be considered if core inflation runs at around 0.3% or higher, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sees at least two more quarter-point moves as necessary. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes stood at 5.01% in Asian trading on Wednesday.
Futures markets price a quarter-point move at the Dec. 9 meeting as the base case, with a half-point at just under 15%, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Nexo. Higher rates make government bonds more attractive and raise the cost of leveraged positions, a combination that has historically sapped demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
A second inflation test arrives Friday, when the Labor Department publishes October producer prices. The September reading showed a 6.3% year-on-year increase, the strongest since December 2022. A hot print would amplify the half-point debate; a soft one would relieve pressure on both crypto and equities.
Equities have already begun to recover. Nvidia rose about 5% in premarket trading on Wednesday, and cloud provider CoreWeave reported a 168% jump in third-quarter revenue while lifting its annual guidance to $13 billion to $13.3 billion. Europe's STOXX 600 traded near a record. Bitcoin has not joined the rebound, and the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies stood at about $2.4 trillion.
What to Watch
For allocators, the key question is whether the improvement in ETF flows goes beyond "less bad." Continued outflows combined with weak demand metrics could force a test of deeper support, with little meaningful buying interest evident between $72,840 and the $70,000 round number. A break above $75,000, and eventually the 20-day average near $77,740, would signal that the short-term downtrend has run its course.
A softer producer price reading on Friday, or a return to net inflows for the Bitcoin funds, would be the first genuine signs of stabilization. Until then, the buyer that would carry the price higher remains absent.
