Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP fell sharply on Friday, prompting debate over whether the selloff marked the start of a deeper decline or had pushed prices into oversold territory. While some analysts described the move as excessive, prediction-market bettors were leaning toward further losses.

Crypto commentator Ash Crypto called the decline “pure manipulation,” arguing that Bitcoin had met several technical conditions often associated with a bullish trend during the previous three months. He pointed to the cryptocurrency’s reclaiming of its 50-week moving average, formation of a higher high and bullish turn in the weekly Supertrend indicator. He also said Bitcoin had withstood geopolitical tensions, the Binance hack and the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance.

Ash Crypto questioned the timing of the drop, which came after news involving Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. He argued that the news was unrelated to Bitcoin and suggested the decline could reflect traders who had missed an earlier pullback trying to push prices lower so they could buy back in more cheaply. His explanation was a market interpretation, not evidence that the selloff was deliberately engineered.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen offered a more cycle-based explanation. In a YouTube video Thursday, he said Bitcoin, then trading near $72,000, appeared to be following its traditional four-year market cycle. He compared a breakout in May with earlier breakouts in 2015, 2019 and March 2022 that were followed by substantial declines.

Cowen expects pressure to persist for “a few more weeks at least,” potentially into the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting. He said a key question is whether Bitcoin’s next low will fall above or below its realized price, which he placed near $54,000.

In Cowen’s view, a move below that level could reset on-chain indicators and help establish conditions for a stronger bull market in 2027. If Bitcoin forms a higher low instead, he said, that could support prices for three to six months before another test of the lows. Cowen said he was bearish over the next few weeks but expected sentiment to turn bullish by year-end.

Polymarket bettors were also pricing in a greater chance of lower Bitcoin prices than a move to $75,000 by the end of November. The market assigned a 52% probability to Bitcoin reaching $65,000 and 31% to $62,500, compared with 26% for $75,000. For the end of 2026, bettors assigned a 68% chance to $65,000 and 38% to $60,000, while the probability of $90,000 was listed at 8%. These figures represent market-implied odds, not guarantees or direct forecasts.

Not all analysts were as bearish. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe described Bitcoin as “oversold again,” saying that conditions like these often occur when markets are near a bottom. He cautioned, however, that it was not yet clear whether the decline was a short-term dip or had established a lasting low.

Technical levels traders are watching include:

| Asset | Support levels | Resistance levels |
|—|—|—|
| Bitcoin | Around $67,652, followed by $64,000–$66,000 | $70,000–$72,000, then $76,000–$78,100 |
| Ethereum | $1,897 and $1,800–$1,830 | $2,000–$2,100 |
| XRP | $0.99–$1.00 and $0.93–$0.94 | $1.04–$1.05 and $1.10 |

The levels mark areas traders may monitor for potential buying interest or selling pressure; they do not determine where prices will move next.