[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin is increasingly likely to record declines for 2 consecutive years for the first time.
As of Nov. 11 (local time), Bitcoin is down about 15.65 percent in 2026 after falling 6.34 percent in 2025, blockchain outlet Decrypt reported.
If Bitcoin fails to recover its price at the start of 2026, about $87,500, by year-end, its annual return would end in negative territory for 2 straight years for the first time in its 18-year history. As of Nov. 10, Bitcoin was trading at about $73,850. It would need to rise about 18.5 percent to turn its annual return positive.
Bitcoin has suffered sharp annual declines several times, but it has shown a pattern of turning positive the year after a negative year. Even during bear markets in 2018 and 2022, it did not post consecutive annual declines.
Still, the current decline is milder than past bear markets. Bitcoin plunged 73.56 percent in 2018 and 64.27 percent in 2022. By contrast, the combined decline of a 6.34 percent drop in 2025 and an additional fall of about 16 percent this year is about 21 percent on a compounded basis. That figure represents only part of the losses investors suffered during past crypto winters.
The annual return shows a limited drop, but the fall from the peak was larger. Bitcoin rose to about $126,000 in October 2025 and later fell below $58,000 at one point in 2026. The decline from the peak exceeded 50 percent.
Analysts pointed to a growing share of institutional investors, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and deeper market liquidity as reasons for the smaller decline. They said such structural changes have not eliminated sharp selloffs themselves. They can explain why the current market cycle looks different from the past, but they have not removed large price plunges.
The report also said it is necessary to distinguish between the duration of consecutive declines and the severity of losses. Markets can drift down gradually over several years, but that shock is not the same as a steep drop concentrated in a single year. Bitcoin rebounded about 92 percent in 2019 after a crash in 2018, and rose more than 155 percent in 2023 after a plunge in 2022.
In this trend, the strong rise in 2024 also affects current profit and loss calculations. Because Bitcoin rose more than 120 percent in 2024, investors who bought at the start of 2024 could still remain in substantial profit territory despite subsequent declines.
The remaining variable is whether it rebounds by year-end. With 50 days left until the end of 2026, Bitcoin needs to attempt to recover its price from the start of the year. If declines continue into 2027, the consecutive-decline record could lengthen, but for now that remains a hypothesis.
