Bitcoin (BTC) is once again probing lower levels. In Nov. 13 trading it briefly fell below $70,000, sinking to its lowest level since August. On Nov. 4 there was a rebound into the $81,000 range, but buying did not follow through, and by Nov. 12 the price had rapidly stepped down from around $74,000 to the $71,000 level. What market participants are watching more closely than the price decline itself is the outflow of funds unfolding behind it.
Stablecoin balances held on exchanges plunged from more than $60 billion in late October to about $49.6 billion on Nov. 9, and have since shrunk to roughly $49 billion. Compared with the roughly $75 billion level in April, the decline is pronounced and is being viewed as a trend spanning several months rather than a move measured in days. Because stablecoins are used as purchase funds for crypto assets and as collateral for futures trading, a decline in balances means a shrinking of the potential purchasing power sitting on exchanges.
Outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs also continue. According to Farside Investors' tally, there were net outflows for five consecutive trading days from Nov. 5 to Nov. 11, totaling $1.44 billion. On Nov. 11 alone, $299.8 million flowed out, and about $270 million was withdrawn from BlackRock's IBIT, the fund with the largest assets under management. On Nov. 12, provisional figures showed an outflow of $47.7 million.
Note: △ indicates outflow. Based on Farside Investors data. Nov. 12 is a provisional figure that does not include asset managers that have not yet reported.
Position unwinding is also progressing in the derivatives market. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Binance's Bitcoin futures open interest fell about 17% in roughly a month, from $10.6 billion to $8.8 billion. This indicates that leveraged positions are being unwound, but a decline in open interest does not mean a recovery in new buying demand.
The loosening of supply and demand is also visible in indicators of the US spot market. The Coinbase Premium Index, which shows the price gap between Coinbase and Binance, remained in negative territory from October into November and briefly fell to around minus 0.27 at the end of October. It recently stood at about minus 0.12, suggesting that buying demand on the US side may not have returned.
US monetary policy caution in the background
What is seen as the trigger for the decline is the US political and financial environment. In addition to policy uncertainty after the midterm elections, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Nov. 10 came in above market expectations, with the headline reading up 0.4% month-on-month and the core reading up 0.3%. Sticky inflation raised awareness of prolonged monetary tightening, and rising interest rates and a stronger dollar weighed on risk assets overall. Ethereum (ETH) also fell to around $2,000, and a cautious stance is spreading across the crypto market.
However, interest rates and the political situation alone cannot fully explain Bitcoin's idiosyncratic weakness. Even when stock markets pared losses, Bitcoin's rebound was sluggish, suggesting that a market-specific lack of demand exists.
"Return of buyers" needed to judge a bottom
In the market, some indicators are being read as bottoming signals. Binance's taker buy/sell ratio hit 0.85, its lowest level in more than a year, and Darkfost points to the possibility that this could lead to a short-term rebound. On that basis, selling-led trading accounted for about 54% of the total.
But this ratio shows "which side is in a hurry to take prices," not how thick the waiting buy orders are. This week, crypto liquidations reportedly reached $1.64 billion, of which longs (long positions) accounted for about 89%. In Bitcoin futures alone, $916 million was liquidated, 95% of it longs. Because forced closing of longs is recorded as taker selling, a considerable portion of the ratio's "sense of urgency" may have come from margin engines.
Volatility indicators in the options market also measure the size of price swings, not direction. Deribit's DVOL index stands at 40.77, a calm level for a phase in which Bitcoin has fallen 17.4% from its recent 30-day high. It is also 18.3% lower than the median of 49.9 in similar phases in 2026. But this is not evidence that "fear is small"; it is a figure consistent with a gradual, continuing decline.
What matters is whether prices stop falling while selling continues at the same scale. If selling is absorbed by buy orders and prices stop making new lows, that would be evidence that waiting funds are digesting supply. Conversely, if selling of a similar magnitude keeps reaching lower prices, then buy orders are being pulled higher or are demanding a larger discount.
Recently, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Friday for the first time since August, and 51.9% of taker volume was still selling-led. It appears that selling of a similar magnitude reached lower prices.
Market impact
Position balances are sometimes cited as an indicator of institutional investor behavior. Tracked fund holdings are said to be about 1.3 million BTC, but that is a stock (balance), not a flow (inflows and outflows). An outflow of $1.44 billion at around $70,000 equates to about 20,000 BTC, or about 1.5% of 1.3 million BTC, and does not show up as a noticeable change in rounded balance figures. What shows the health of demand is not the balance but its change.
The focus going forward comes down to three points: stablecoin reserve balances stopping their decline, improvement in the Coinbase Premium Index, and a halt to ETF outflows. A short-term rebound can occur through futures short covering, but for it to be sustained, buying in the spot market needs to broaden. The question is not whether sellers have decreased, but whether new buyers return and can continue to absorb selling.
