Bitcoin has fallen below the 90 million won mark. It is the third day since it failed to hold the 100 million won threshold that another support line has given way, marking the lowest level in about three months since August.
As of 9:12 a.m. on the 15th, one Bitcoin was trading at 88.891 million won (approximately $67,000) on South Korea's Bithumb exchange, down 1.88% from 24 hours earlier. At the same time, global price tracker CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin at $64,340.44 (~86 million won). Bitcoin surrendered the 100 million won level on the 13th, extended its losses over the weekend, and plunged below 90 million won around midnight.
Major altcoins were also uniformly weak. Ethereum fell 3.77%, Ripple 4.89% and Solana 4.32%, spreading selling pressure across the broader market.
The plunge is seen not as the result of a single negative factor but of three overlapping shocks. The most direct trigger was the tech-stock shock emanating from Nvidia. The resignation of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang spilled over into tighter semiconductor regulations and concerns about circular financing in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, sending New York tech stocks into correction and pushing risk-off sentiment into the crypto market. According to crypto analyst Nishie, writing for Japanese crypto outlet CoinPost, the correlation coefficient between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin has risen to 0.46, indicating clear synchronization with the stock market.
Rate pressure also intensified. As US October consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) readings both came in above expectations in succession, the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December have gained traction. With the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing 5%, Bitcoin — a risk asset that pays no interest — is bound to lose relative appeal.
Outflows on the supply-demand side are also pronounced. Funds continue to leave US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had served as a pillar of institutional demand. News that Strategy, a major Bitcoin holder, is set to be removed from the MSCI USA Index further weighed on sentiment amid fears of selling by index-tracking funds. The move reflects wariness that the channels for institutional capital inflows could narrow.
Regulatory uncertainty also remains unresolved. With Democrats sweeping both the Senate and the House in the US midterm elections — the so-called "blue tsunami" — the likelihood has grown that the CLARITY Act will be amended or its passage delayed. Some observers expect uncertainty over the legal framework for the crypto market to persist.
The structural fragility of the derivatives market amplified the decline. Long positions were heavily clustered for forced liquidation in the $71,000 to $69,000 range, and once prices broke out of that zone, liquidations cascaded and deepened the drop. This is the backdrop to the breach of the $70,000 (~94 million won) level.
Note: As of 9:12 a.m. on the 15th; Korea premium figures from CryptoPrice
The temperature gap in the domestic market is also notable. According to crypto price comparison platform CryptoPrice, the Korea premium stood at plus 3.52% on the day. That means Bitcoin on South Korean exchanges was priced more than 3% higher than overseas, suggesting that buying by South Korean investors is flowing in relatively strongly during the sharp selloff.
The New York stock market was not immune to the risk-off mood either. On the 13th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 0.91% and 0.40%, respectively. AI-related stocks such as semiconductors and neoclouds led the declines, while weekly options expiration, heavy zero-day put option trading and hawkish comments from Fed officials also weighed. The decline did, however, appear to stabilize after the S&P 500 approached 7,500 points, a key zone of concentrated put options.
The market broadly expects Bitcoin to be driven for the time being by three variables: interest rates, the stock market and regulation. The prevailing view is that a rebound will be difficult to achieve until US signals of further tightening weaken and ETF fund flows turn to net inflows. Conversely, the fact that the South Korean Korea premium remains positive is interpreted as a sign that bargain-hunting demand is still alive.
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