Bitcoin fell in the fourth quarter of each of the last three U.S. midterm election years, yet traded higher one year after every vote, according to an analysis by Joe Consorti.
In a video published on November 4 on his X account, Consorti compared Bitcoin’s performance around those elections. His analysis highlighted the difference between weakness through year-end and gains measured a year after the vote.
Consorti said Bitcoin was the best-performing major asset in the year following each of the three elections. The historical comparisons used election-day prices as their starting point, rather than the lows reached during the subsequent selloffs.
Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter losses were 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022, according to Consorti. In both 2018 and 2022, the market bottom came after the election, underscoring that the end of voting did not coincide with an immediate price recovery.
Consorti described a market under renewed pressure at the time of recording. Bitcoin was trading around $77,500, about 39% below its record near $126,000. Four consecutive declining weeks had also reversed an earlier recovery above the 50-week moving average.
Investor acquisition costs were another pressure point. Consorti put the average recent buyer’s cost at about $75,800, roughly $1,700 below the prevailing price. Bitcoin was already below the approximately $77,800 average cost he cited for coins actively traded in the market.
Consorti said investors withdrew $643 million from Bitcoin ETFs on Friday, while more than $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. He also pointed to a correction in the Nasdaq 100, concerns over returns on AI investment and a central bank stance that remained tilted toward tightening.
Election results could add to short-term volatility, Consorti argued. A Democratic sweep of the House and Senate would create a legislative deadlock with the president, while a different outcome would force markets to reassess expectations. Bitcoin’s continuous trading meant it could react to election headlines after the stock market closed.
Over the longer historical comparison, Consorti reported Bitcoin gains of 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% one year after the election-day closes in 2014, 2018 and 2022, respectively. He said Bitcoin reached a fresh record within two and a half years of each vote, although the earlier cycles also included further losses after election day.
Riza Dagoc
Riza Dagoc reports on regulation, investing and the digital-asset business for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to [email protected].
