Kumar's research analyzed 973,581 Lightning channel closures recorded between January 2018 and October 31, 2026. The dataset included 523,815 force closes. For its detailed 2026 cost analysis, the study examined 14,435 public force closes through October 4, leaving four weeks for the transactions' outputs to be followed.
Force Closes Cost More Than Cooperative Closures
The 2026 sample showed a median cost of 925 satoshis per force-closed channel across both parties. By comparison, cooperative closures had a median cost of 197 satoshis. This put the median force-close cost at 4.7 times the cooperative-close figure.
The force-close calculation covered the commitment transaction, required balance sweeps, pending-payment resolution, observed same-block fee increases by channel owners and subsequent owner anchor cleanup. Where spending fees were shared across batched inputs, the study allocated them among those inputs.
However, transaction fees represent only part of the cost of closing a channel. The study found that the party initiating a unilateral closure typically had to wait 2.5 days before its own balance became eligible to be swept. Across the full January 2018 to October 2026 research period, the median waiting time was 1.7 days.
Why Bitcoin Lightning Funds Remain Locked
A force close settles a Lightning channel on the Bitcoin blockchain using a commitment transaction that was signed previously. Under the BOLT 3 specification, the output returning the broadcaster's balance includes a time delay known as to_self_delay.
The delay gives the counterparty an opportunity to penalize the broadcaster if the broadcaster attempts to settle the channel using a revoked state. As a result, the broadcaster cannot immediately spend its delayed balance after the commitment transaction is confirmed.
Kumar's 2.5-day measurement refers to the point at which the balance becomes eligible for a sweep. It does not mean the funds will necessarily arrive in a wallet at that exact time. The figure also does not measure the speed of routine Lightning payments.
For channel operators who depend on readily available capital, the distinction has practical consequences. Even when a force close carries relatively low transaction fees, the associated delay can leave funds unavailable for several days.
Locked-Balance Costs in a Low-Fee Environment
To compare the financial impact of waiting with the cost of transactions, Kumar calculated a break-even annual return. This represents the rate at which the cost of having a broadcaster's balance locked would equal the force-close fees.
The break-even figure was 1.2% in the 2026 sample, compared with 16.7% across the full study period. The calculation compares per-channel fees paid by both parties with the broadcaster's delayed balance and excludes pending-payment amounts. It illustrates the potential significance of waiting costs in a low-fee environment, rather than suggesting that operators actually earned the calculated return.
BOLT 3 and Zero-Fee Commitment Transactions
The research also discusses the relationship between accessible balances and BOLT 3's zero-fee commitment transaction design. Under this approach, miners receive the required fee through a child transaction using the child-pays-for-parent mechanism.
Transactions that resolve conditional pending payments, known as Hash Time Locked Contracts (HTLCs), obtain their fees through additional inputs. Meanwhile, the broadcaster's balance remains subject to the applicable delay.
Consequently, removing the mining fee from the pre-signed commitment transaction does not eliminate the need to account for the settlement transactions or the time required before the broadcaster can spend its delayed funds.
Study Limitations and Available Data
The analysis has several limitations. Private cooperative closures were not included, while splices were excluded from the channel-close counts. The cost analysis also did not classify simple-taproot delays, HTLC resolutions or fee bumps. In addition, confirmed blockchain records cannot reveal fee-bump transactions that failed or were replaced.
Kumar's released repository includes the research code and aggregate outputs. The underlying scan tables, channel lists and gossip snapshots are available from the author upon request.
The findings indicate that evaluating a Lightning channel exit requires more than comparing transaction fees. For operators, the period during which funds remain inaccessible is another part of the cost of closing a channel.
source: cryptoslate
Writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.
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The articles on Hokanews are here to keep you updated on the latest buzz in crypto, tech, and beyond—but they’re not financial advice. We’re sharing info, trends, and insights, not telling you to buy, sell, or invest. Always do your own homework before making any money moves.
Hokanews isn’t responsible for any losses, gains, or chaos that might happen if you act on what you read here. Investment decisions should come from your own research—and, ideally, guidance from a qualified financial advisor. Remember: crypto and tech move fast, info changes in a blink, and while we aim for accuracy, we can’t promise it’s 100% complete or up-to-date.
