Bitcoin lost its 200-day average — but the exit started three sessions before the CPI

The 200-day break matters for trend followers, but the structure that produced it was already visible a week earlier.

Bitcoin put in a high of 81,890 on 29 October, pulled back, then made a second high of 81,080 on 4 November. Two peaks within 0.99% of each other, six sessions apart, with a 6.7% drawdown between them. That is a textbook double top — and the neckline at 75,628, the low of that 4 November session, broke on 5 November.

81,890 then 81,080: the lower second peak

The second peak never quite reached the first. That matters because a double top that fails to make a higher high is what a market looks like when buyers are still present but no longer dominant.

The measured move from that pattern is 69,366 — the neckline minus the height of the pattern (75,628 minus 6,262). That is where the chart says the next test sits, provided price stays below the neckline.

The break happened before the data, not after

This is the part the headline misses. The neckline broke on 5 November, five days before the CPI release. By the time inflation data hit on 10 November, Bitcoin was already 5% below its second peak.

Tuesday's move accelerated an existing structure. It did not create one.