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Bitcoin may have already reached its bear market bottom or could face one final decline as its historical four year cycle evolves, according to Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Hashdex.
The assessment comes as Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on Friday, extending a selloff that has pushed the asset roughly 45% below its October 2025 peak of approximately $126,000.
Kerbage said Bitcoin’s current cycle has followed a familiar historical pattern, although the size of its price swings has diminished considerably compared with previous cycles.
“Bitcoin sits 35% below its high and 37% above the June low, so either June was the bottom, earlier and shallower than any before it, or bitcoin still has a last leg to run,” Kerbage wrote in research circulated by Hashdex.
“Bitcoin sits 35% below its high and 37% above the June low, so either June was the bottom, earlier and shallower than any before it, or bitcoin still has a last leg to run,” Kerbage wrote in research circulated by Hashdex.
The figures reflect an earlier market snapshot. With Bitcoin trading near $69,000 on Friday, the asset was approximately 17% above its June low of $59,000.
According to Kerbage, Bitcoin declined 84% and 83% from peak to trough during its first two major cycles and 77% during the third. The current cycle’s deepest drawdown has been approximately 53%, reached in June.
Returns between successive cycle peaks have also moderated, falling from 1,598% to 250% and then 85%, he said.
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Kerbage pointed to declining volatility as another indication of a maturing market. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility averaged roughly 80% during its first two cycles, compared with 53% in the third and approximately 44% during the current cycle.
He also highlighted the declining volatility gap between Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin was nearly ten times as volatile as gold in 2017, compared with roughly twice as volatile in 2025 and 1.5 times in 2026, according to his analysis.
Beyond price movements, Kerbage cited growing stablecoin adoption and tokenization as evidence that the underlying crypto market continues to expand despite the downturn.
He said the number of Brazilian wallets holding at least $10,000 in stablecoins has increased 347% since July 2024, while global stablecoin transaction volume reached $1.79 trillion in June, up 125% from a year earlier.
Visa’s stablecoin settlement volume also increased tenfold over the past year, according to figures cited by Kerbage.
The analysis builds on Hashdex’s earlier assessment that institutional participation is changing Bitcoin’s historical market dynamics, potentially moderating the sharp rallies and corrections associated with previous cycles.
