Bitcoin traded near $64,300 on Saturday evening, extending its decline to 24.2% from an October peak ahead of Anthropic's expected stock-market debut. A circulating comparison with bitcoin's recovery after SpaceX's IPO offers a bullish scenario—not evidence that the bottom is near.

Coinbase's BTC-USD ticker recorded $64,304.51 at 7:13:31 p.m. ET on Nov. 14. Bitstamp quoted $64,290.35 at 7:13:34 p.m. ET, down 5.9% over 24 hours. Coinbase's separately sampled 24-hour statistics showed a 5.7% decline around the same time.

The 24.2% drawdown measures Coinbase's latest quote against its $84,856.07 intraday high in the Oct. 21 UTC session. That was the highest price in the exchange's 28 completed UTC daily sessions from Oct. 18 through Nov. 14. This is a decline from an intraday peak, not a close-to-close return.

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The latest price was well below the $71,500 low documented in The Defiant's Nov. 12 report on the break beneath $72,000. Coinbase's completed Nov. 14 UTC session recorded a still-lower trough of $63,270.

What the IPO Parallel Shows

Matt Cole, whose X profile identifies him as Strive's chairman and CEO, argued on Nov. 13 that bitcoin's decline ahead of Anthropic's offering resembled its fall before SpaceX's June listing. He suggested that, if the pattern repeated, most of the drawdown could be behind bitcoin and a recovery could come quickly over the following months.

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Coinbase's daily price record broadly supports the historical percentages in Cole's comparison. Bitcoin's June 12 UTC close was 18.8% below its April 23 close, 50 calendar days earlier. By Sept. 20, 100 days after the listing date used in the comparison, it was 3.7% above that April baseline.

But the earlier path also included more selling after the IPO: bitcoin's June 30 close, 18 days later, was 25.2% below the April baseline. The price parallel does not establish that investors sold bitcoin to fund IPO subscriptions, or that Anthropic's debut will trigger the same recovery.

Anthropic said on Nov. 10 that its proposed offering comprised 825 million shares at an expected $70 to $78 apiece, with an application to list on Nasdaq under the symbol ANT. Reuters reported that day that trading was expected to begin Nov. 19. That remains an expected debut, not a completed offering—and the date alone provides no timetable for a bitcoin rebound.