Summary
- Axel Adler Jr. said bearish market conditions are continuing as Bitcoin trades below its 365-day median price of $77,000.
- Adler said Bitcoin’s recovery of $77,000 could be the first signal confirming an improvement in market conditions.
- Adler said the risk of further declines remains until Bitcoin regains the $75,500-$75,600 support zone and the one-year average MVRV.
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Bitcoin’s drop below the midpoint of its price range over the past year suggests bearish market conditions are persisting, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.
In a newsletter published on Nov. 9, Adler wrote that Bitcoin traded around $74,000 earlier this week, below its 365-day median price of $77,000.
Bitcoin fell about 4.4% from $78,000 to $74,000 between Nov. 1 and Nov. 8. It has remained below its 365-day median since Nov. 5. The bottom 25% threshold of its price range over the past year is about $67,000.
A move back above $77,000 could be the first signal that market conditions are improving, Adler said.
Adjusted MVRV, a metric that reflects investors’ average profit position, also weakened. The indicator fell to 1.047 from 1.075 last week, slipping below its 365-day average of 1.054. It remains above 1, however, meaning investors are still holding unrealized gains on average.
Bitcoin has also failed to reclaim the key support zone of $75,500 to $75,600, Adler wrote. The risk of further declines remains until the cryptocurrency recovers $77,000 and MVRV rises back above its one-year average.
Minseung Kang
