Short-term prediction markets also show doubts about an immediate recovery. Polymarket's November contracts assign approximately 60% probability to Bitcoin touching USD 72,500 before December. The chance of a decline toward USD 70,000 stands near 41%.
However, a recovery to USD 80,000 carries approximately 56% probability. Those odds fall to 23% for USD 85,000 and just 9% for USD 90,000, according to the platform's November market.
Kalshi's November contracts show comparable caution. Its downside market places the probability of Bitcoin falling below USD 72,500 above 60%, while its upside contracts assign approximately 35% to exceeding USD 82,500 and 22% to USD 85,000.
Bitcoin's immediate trading range also remains narrow. On November 8, CoinGecko recorded a 24-hour range of approximately USD 75,540 to USD 76,150, keeping prices below the USD 80,000 level reached earlier in November.
Prediction-market prices reflect traders' current positions rather than confirmed future outcomes. The November contracts expire on November 30, while the remaining 2026 price targets and year-end settlement markets continue through December 31.
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