Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Friday's Expiry Decides

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The Bitcoin price prediction for the coming days hinges on a fixed date: on Friday, November 6, 2026, options on 33,135 BTC, worth about $2.65 billion, expire at 08:00 UTC at Deribit. Open are 24,912 calls and only 8,223 puts. On Wednesday evening Bitcoin cost $80,032 according to CoinGecko, just above max pain at $79,000.

Bitcoin price prediction: key points

Expiry: Friday, 08:00 UTC, about $2.65 billion.
Ratio: three times as many calls as puts, put-call ratio 0.33.
Levels above: $81,911, $82,000 and $85,000.
Levels below: $79,000, $75,000 and $73,163.
Priced-in range: about $75,800 to $84,200 over seven days.

Bitcoin price prediction: what has changed since election night

On midterm election night everything revolved around the low. The 24-hour low stood at $75,695, the high at $81,004. Bitcoin has recovered more than $4,300 but did not reclaim the 50-day average at $81,911. Over 30 days the coin is still down 6.6 percent. So the question is no longer whether the low holds, but whether the price clears the next hurdle.

Bitcoin options expiry: what max pain and the call blocks mean

Max pain is the price at which most options expire worthless. For Friday it sits at $79,000, only 1.3 percent below Wednesday's price. That is not a forecast. It shows where option sellers pay out the least. Before big dates the price sometimes drifts near it, but often enough it does not.

The blocks are more interesting. Most calls sit at $82,000 and $85,000, most puts at $74,000 and $75,000. If the price moves toward $82,000, traders who sold those calls often have to buy Bitcoin to hedge, which can amplify a move. The same applies in reverse on the way down.

Looking beyond Friday shows the longer bet. For November 27, 37,116 calls face 24,762 puts, with the largest call blocks at $90,000 and $100,000 and the largest put blocks at $58,000 and $75,000. November 13 is the only one of the three dates with more puts than calls. If you want to trade the move yourself, use regulated crypto exchanges.

Bitcoin forecast: the range the options market is pricing in

Deribit's volatility index, DVOL, stood at 38 on Wednesday evening. Converted to seven days, that implies an expected move of about 5.3 percent in either direction, roughly $75,800 to $84,200. This calculation describes what the market prices in, not what will happen.

Bitcoin price prediction: three scenarios until the weekend

The 200-day average at $73,163 sits 8.6 percent below the price and remains the line between a pullback and a broken trend. The one-year high of daily closes at $105,951 is 24 percent away. Our Bitcoin price prediction page covers longer horizons. If you prefer not to self-custody, compare suitable crypto brokers.

As of Wednesday evening, November 4, 2026. This article is not investment advice.

FAQ: Bitcoin price prediction

The next big expiry at Deribit is on Friday, November 6, 2026, at 08:00 UTC. Options on 33,135 BTC are open, including 24,912 calls and 8,223 puts.

Max pain is the price at which most options expire worthless. For November 6 it sits at $79,000. It is a reference point, not a forecast.

Above, the 50-day average at $81,911 and the call blocks at $82,000 and $85,000. Below, $79,000 and $75,000 as well as the 200-day average at $73,163.

Transparency note: This article was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by our editorial team before publication. All figures and claims were checked against the primary sources linked in the text. The feature image was generated with AI.

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