Bitcoin sits nearly 40% below its record, ETF money is wobbling, and a fear gauge just spiked. Two specific signals could decide whether the six-figure dream revives or the slide toward $50,000 begins.
The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading at $75,904, a 0.6% drop in the last 24 hours. Over the past month, it has fallen 8.9% and is now 39.8% below its peak of $126,080. Over the past year, BTC has fluctuated, reaching a high of $105,951 on November 10, 2025, and dropping to a low of $58,566 on June 30, 2026.
A Bitcoin price prediction for the end of 2028 is hard to pin down, but it helps to explore key scenarios, since the question of whether Bitcoin can return to a six-figure price keeps coming up.
What Would It Take for Bitcoin to Reach $100,000?
If Bitcoin reaches $100,000, its market cap, calculated by multiplying the price by the number of coins in circulation, would be around $2.01 trillion, based on the current supply of 20,105,365 coins. At its present price, Bitcoin has a market cap of about $1.53 trillion, while the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), stands at roughly $272.82 billion.
As miners continue to create new coins, the circulating supply will gradually approach the 21,000,000 cap, with 894,635 coins still available for mining. If Bitcoin were valued at $126,080, the market cap would be close to $2.53 trillion because of the lower supply at that time. If it rose to $150,000, the market cap would exceed $3.02 trillion.
A move to $100,000 means a 31.7% gain from its current price. Meanwhile, climbing back to the previous peak of $126,080 would mean a more substantial increase of about 66.1%. A $100,000 price means a market valuation above $2 trillion.
Catalysts That Could Lift Bitcoin Back to Six Figures
Spot Bitcoin ETF Demand
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are investment funds backed by actual Bitcoin, meaning steady purchases can pull coins off the market. As of November 5, cumulative net inflows stood at around $56.11 billion, down from $57.96 billion on October 21. One day of flows doesn’t create a trend on its own.
Bitcoin has risen 114.2% over the last three years, including the launch of ETFs in January 2024 and the peak in 2025.
Federal Reserve Rates
The Federal Reserve’s upper target rate is currently 4.00%, up from 3.75% for much of 2026. High rates can hurt Bitcoin prices, while lower borrowing costs typically boost market appeal. M2 money supply, representing cash and deposits, grew to $23.41 trillion in September 2026, indicating slow liquidity growth.
Rising Fear Gauge May Slow Bitcoin’s Recovery
The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged to 28.18 on November 5, compared to 16.61 the previous day. This spike indicates heightened uncertainty, which could stall Bitcoin’s rebound. Although selling pressure appears to be easing, lower risk appetite could limit Bitcoin’s potential to reach six figures.
Can Bitcoin Reach $100,000 by 2028?
A Bitcoin price above $100,000 by the end of 2028 seems plausible, while hitting $150,000 appears less likely given current conditions. For Bitcoin to gain momentum, it needs to first regain its 50-day moving average of $82,003. From there, it should clear its one-year high of $105,951, supported by ETF inflows and a Fed rate cut from 4.00%.
If ETF demand continues to decline and interest rates remain elevated, Bitcoin may test its 200-day moving average of $73,197 as a critical support level. If BTC dips below it, $50,000 could come into play. Predictions are inherently uncertain, since rates, market flows, and investor sentiment can all shift rapidly.
Your best indicators for a stronger case for $100,000 are a sustained close above $82,003 along with cumulative ETF inflows exceeding $57.96 billion. If these conditions are met, the argument for Bitcoin hitting the six-figure mark becomes much more compelling.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
