Bitcoin has already done several things bulls wanted to see.
The long-term downtrend has been broken, price recovered strongly from the June low, and BTC even printed a higher high in September.
Yet CryptoCon believes that still may not be enough to confirm the bear market is over.
His latest chart compares Bitcoin’s current structure with 2015, and the similarity points to one uncomfortable possibility: BTC could still make a fresh low within the next few months.
What you'll learn 👉
The 2015 Comparison Is More Bullish Than It Looks
The interesting part of CryptoCon’s chart is that the 2015 setup did not look obviously bearish at first.
Bitcoin had already broken above its bear-market downtrend.
It then produced a higher high, which normally gives traders confidence that a new bullish structure is forming.
But several months later, price still dropped below the January 2015 low with a lower wick in August.
Only after that final shakeout did Bitcoin begin the move that CryptoCon marks as the start of the next bull-market phase.
His argument is that 2026 may be following a similar sequence.
Bitcoin broke its descending trend line earlier this year, rallied from the June low and then produced a higher high in September.
That is almost exactly the sequence highlighted on the left side of his chart.
Why a New Bitcoin Low Is Still Possible
The comparison does not say Bitcoin must collapse immediately.
It says that a broken downtrend and one higher high do not necessarily guarantee that the final bear-market low is already behind us.
CryptoCon’s 2026 chart leaves room for another decline during the next three months.
That is the part many traders may overlook.
Markets often do not move cleanly from bear trend to bull trend. A final liquidity sweep below an established low can happen even after the structure starts improving.
In 2015, that final drop did not destroy the larger recovery.
It became part of the bottoming process.
CryptoCon believes the same type of move could happen again.
The June Low Is the Level That Really Matters
The current comparison becomes much more relevant if Bitcoin starts moving back toward its June low.
That low sits around the upper-$50,000 to low-$60,000 region on CryptoCon’s chart.
A break below it would create the kind of lower wick that closely resembles August 2015.
If Bitcoin instead holds well above that area and begins making another series of higher highs, the historical comparison becomes much weaker.
That gives the setup a useful distinction.
The 2015 analogy is not simply predicting a crash.
It is outlining a possible final stage of the bear market before a more durable recovery begins.
Read also: Analyst Says Bitcoin’s Bear Market Has Only a Few Months Left
History Rhymes, But It Does Not Repeat Perfectly
The chart is visually convincing, but there are obvious differences between 2015 and today.
Bitcoin’s market size, institutional ownership, ETF flows and macro environment are completely different.
That means traders should not assume the same pattern will repeat point for point.
Still, CryptoCon’s chart makes one useful point.
A bullish trend-line break does not always mean the bottom is confirmed.
Bitcoin already looked stronger in 2015 before one final low caught traders off guard.
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