Bitcoin matched the S&P 500's session-level returns in exactly half of Wall Street's trading days over the past 90 sessions, according to onchain analytics firm Glassnode, snapping a stretch of more than a year in which the largest cryptocurrency lost to the benchmark index more often than it beat it.
The rolling 90-session reading, which closed on Wednesday, put Bitcoin's win rate at 50%, a level it had not reached since March 2025. Glassnode said the coin's average gain per session over the window was also modestly above that of the S&P 500.
"The win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won," the firm wrote in its weekly newsletter, The Week Onchain. "A return to an even split ends a long stretch of underperformance. Should the win rate climb above 50% and hold there, it would show Bitcoin regaining strength against equities."
That the two assets now trade more in step is visible in their correlation. TradingView data cited in the analysis puts Bitcoin's rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63, a positive reading that has firmed since August, when both markets advanced as the US Treasury stepped up its debt buyback operations.
Separately, crypto asset manager Capriole Investments has examined how US midterm elections have historically shaped equity performance. Across the 26 midterm cycles since 1922, Democrats captured both the House and Senate while a Republican held the White House on seven occasions. In those instances, the S&P 500 climbed an average of 10.7% over the following three months, 17.5% over six months and 15.5% over a full year.
"There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had," Capriole founder Charles Edwards said in a post on X, referring to the outcome of this year's vote.
Note: Based on the seven midterm elections since 1922 in which Democrats won both chambers of Congress under a Republican president, per Capriole Investments.
The historical figures are drawing attention as investors weigh the outlook for both equities and digital assets against a backdrop of shifting fiscal policy and political conditions in Washington. Because Bitcoin and US stock indices have become more closely linked, moves in one market are increasingly showing up in the other, making cross-asset monitoring more relevant for traders who hold both.
For Bitcoin, the significance of the latest reading lies less in the 50% figure itself than in what it replaces. Through most of the past year, the coin repeatedly lagged the equity benchmark on a session-by-session basis, a pattern that weighed on the case for treating it as a diversifying holding. Returning to parity, and doing so while average session gains edge slightly higher than the index's, shifts that comparison.
Whether the win rate can push meaningfully above 50% and stay there is the question Glassnode's framework now poses. A sustained move higher would mark a clearer break from the underperformance of the past year; a slip back below the line would suggest the current reading is little more than a pause.
