Diesel supply constraints have been cited as a factor that could shake expectations for interest rate cuts in the bitcoin market. Even if international oil prices fall, inflation easing and monetary easing could be delayed if bottlenecks at refineries keep fuel costs from declining enough, according to an analysis.

On Nov. 12 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in an outlook released on Nov. 10 put the average U.S. retail diesel price in 2027 at $5.03 per gallon. That is about 12 percent higher than last month’s projection of $4.49.

This does not mean the 2027 price will be higher than this year’s. The EIA expects the diesel price to fall to $5.03 in 2027 from an average of $5.25 this year. It also sees the average Brent crude price dropping to $86 a barrel from $97 this year. Prices are expected to fall, but in diesel’s case the projected decline is smaller than previously forecast.

The variable is the supply capacity of refineries that process crude into diesel and other petroleum products. The EIA explained that refining margins are staying high as exports of petroleum products fall due to damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia. Even if crude becomes cheaper, fuel prices paid by consumers may not drop as much if refinery supply constraints persist.

The EIA expects supply disruptions to be concentrated in early 2027 and then gradually ease, but it sees the constraints on petroleum product supply itself continuing through late 2027. It also cited unexpected outages and deferred maintenance as factors that could destabilise refinery operations.

The impact on the bitcoin market may emerge through the path of inflation and interest rates. If diesel prices stay high, the burden of production and transportation costs could spread into consumer prices. If inflation easing is delayed and rate cuts are pushed back, investor sentiment toward risk assets such as bitcoin could also be constrained, it said.

Michelle Bowman (미셸 보먼), the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, warned in a speech on Nov. 10 that energy costs could keep core inflation at high levels through production and transportation costs. She added that there are signs that petroleum product prices have fallen somewhat recently and that refining margins are normalising, and she maintained her forecast that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will come close to 2 percent next year.

Ultimately, the key is how much diesel supply constraints affect overall inflation and monetary policy. If the burden of fuel costs persists, it could be an obstacle to bitcoin’s rate-cut expectations, but this energy price outlook alone cannot determine the Fed’s policy decision or bitcoin’s price reaction.