Bitcoin could record an annual decline for a second straight year for the first time. That is because the slide is extending in 2026 after a weak close in 2025. Some in the market also say it is hard to compare this correction simply with past bear markets.
Bitcoin is down about 16 percent so far in 2026 after falling about 6 percent in 2025, blockchain media outlet Bitcoin Magazine reported on Nov. 12. Bitcoin needs to exceed $87,500 over the remaining seven weeks of the year to turn its annual return positive. That would require a rebound of about 18 percent from current levels.
If 2026 ends in the red, Bitcoin will post its first back-to-back annual decline on record. In 2025, Bitcoin recorded its first annual decline in the year immediately after the halving. If this year also ends weak, it would extend a pattern not seen in past upcycles.
Sean Hagan (션 헤이건) of BMTV said the market should not interpret the situation pessimistically based only on the back-to-back decline. He said market participants see the possibility of two negative annual candles as evidence of Bitcoin's weakness, but price action and data allow a different reading.
He pointed to inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as a backdrop to the move. He said inflows through ETFs brought forward the bull market compared with the past, meaning gains were reflected earlier than in prior cycles. He also said the structure of annual returns could change from the past.
He also cited differences between 2021 and 2025 in annual comparisons. He said gains built earlier in 2021 served as a buffer for the subsequent price correction, but 2025 did not have the same room. Hagan said the core issue lies in year one rather than year two.
He also said the intensity of this correction should be distinguished from past bear markets. Hagan said even if 2026 ends lower, this could be the mildest annual decline after a major peak. He added that the roughly 18 percent rebound needed by year end is not historically very rare. He said such a rebound occurs about once in every eight cases.
He also stressed a gap between market sentiment and the actual price structure. Hagan said the phrase "two-year consecutive decline" can sound far more negative than the reality, and he assessed that Bitcoin has become more mature and stronger than in the past.
The key for the rest of this year is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $87,500. A move above that level would avoid concerns about an annual decline, but failure to rebound would leave Bitcoin with a first annual drop after the halving and the first back-to-back annual declines on record.
