Bitcoin is clinging to roughly $76,000, and one widely followed crypto analyst says the next few sessions could decide whether the token stabilizes or gives up another double-digit chunk of its value.
Benjamin Cowen, who publishes market analysis on his YouTube channel, flagged $74,900 on Friday as the level that separates a routine pullback from a sharper leg lower. Should bitcoin lose that floor on a sustained basis, he argued, the price could slide quickly by another 10% to 11% and revisit the lows of its summer trading range.
The token had climbed above $80,000 earlier in the week before fading back below $76,000, a pattern the analyst described as characteristic of this year's market: early-week strength that evaporates within days. A brief dip under $74,900 could still be followed by a recovery, he said, but a second failed rebound would harden the bearish case.
Below the current price, Cowen pointed to the 200-day moving average around $72,000 to $73,000 as an intermediate cushion. Thin trading volume between present levels and that support, he cautioned, could make any selloff travel faster than usual.
Note: Levels as described by Benjamin Cowen in his Nov. 6 analysis.
A midterm-year pattern, and what is missing
Much of the analyst's case rests on comparisons with 2018 and 2022, two other midterm election years in which bitcoin carved out repeated lows in the first quarter, the summer months and the fourth quarter. The current cycle has already produced troughs in February and over the summer, in his reading, which puts the final quarter of 2026 -- or possibly January 2027 -- on the clock for another one.
What has not happened yet, he said, is capitulation. Past bear markets ended with heavy-volume selling climaxes, and nothing of that scale has shown up this year. That absence is why he treats claims that bitcoin has already bottomed with skepticism.
He also pushed back on the idea that bitcoin's reclaiming of its 50-week moving average amounts to a bullish signal. In 2019 and 2023, the token ran up 35% to 50% after crossing that line; this time the gain has been limited to about 10%. The average itself is still sloping downward, and price has returned to it far more quickly than in prior recoveries.
Liquidity gauges reinforce the cautious read. The total value of the stablecoin market has slipped beneath the lows reached in February and July, a sign of thinning crypto-market liquidity, and the ratio of bitcoin to USDT market dominance has yet to trace the kind of sustained recovery seen in past turning points.
Macro headwinds beyond the chart
Technical levels alone do not explain the weakness, according to the analyst. He drew parallels to the policy backdrop of 2018 and 2022, when rate increases weighed on risk assets, and said markets are pricing close to an 80% probability of another hike in December. He expects the current tightening stretch to be shorter than the cycle that began in 2022, which in his view limits how deep a drawdown is likely.
Sticky inflation, driven in part by energy costs and tariffs, is constraining the Federal Reserve's room to maneuver, he added. Weakness in the Nasdaq, which he said echoes its 2018 correction, and rising credit risk premiums point to broader risk aversion that could spill into crypto.
Even so, the analyst said the data do not indicate the U.S. economy is in recession, which is why a slump as long and deep as 2022 is not his base case. He also left room for the bull scenario: bitcoin could hold at the levels he identified and resume its advance.
For traders, the immediate focus is whether $74,900 holds on a closing basis. A defense of that zone would keep the recovery narrative alive; a clean break would put the summer lows back in play and test whether the fourth-quarter bottom Cowen anticipates arrives sooner than expected.
Bitcoin bulls face a familiar test in the sessions ahead, with the token hovering near $76,000 and the margin for error narrowing.
