Bitcoin’s Path to Reclaiming $87,397 in 2027 Faces ETF Outflows and Rising Yields

Bitcoin fell to $66,485 on Saturday, November 14, down 3.96% over 24 hours and 12.26% over the previous seven days. The cryptocurrency had traded above $70,000 earlier in the week and closed at $84,082.27 on October 21.

The decline has renewed questions about whether Bitcoin can recover to $87,397, a high reached during a September rally, or whether the market has further to fall. At its current price, Bitcoin is 47.27% below its record of $126,080, set on October 6, 2025. It is down 29.85% over the past year and 24.08% so far this year.

Past market cycles offer a cautionary comparison. A CoinDesk analysis found that Bitcoin was down about 70%, 82% and 75%, respectively, one year after its 2013, 2017 and 2021 peaks. The current one-year decline is smaller, but previous downturns have not always ended with an initial drop. In 2022, Bitcoin fell to a June low of $17,697.70 before reaching a lower low of $15,598.50 in November.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization is about $1.34 trillion, keeping it the largest cryptocurrency by market value. However, the amount of Bitcoin in circulation increases as miners add new coins to the network. That means returning to a price reached in the past requires more total investment than it did when fewer coins were in circulation. Bitcoin is up only 4.11% from $63,857.77 five years ago, despite the growth in its market value.

Three developments could shape the next move: demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, interest rates and leveraged trading.

ETF flows have turned negative

Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold Bitcoin and trade on stock exchanges. Their combined cumulative net inflows peaked at $57.96 billion on October 21, then fell to $54.63 billion by November 13. Over the same period, the funds’ total net assets dropped from $109.31 billion to $86.20 billion.

The latest three trading sessions each recorded outflows: $299.90 million, $284 million and $185.45 million. The largest single-day outflow in the period was $643.33 million on October 30.

ETF demand has coincided with price movements in the past. Inflows of $526.60 million on October 19 and $528.40 million on October 21 preceded Bitcoin’s 30-day high that week. A sustained return to positive flows could help support prices, but the recent trend has been in the opposite direction.

Rising Treasury yields add competition

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.10% on November 12, up from 4.84% on November 5. The Federal Reserve’s target rate remained unchanged over the past month, with its upper limit at 4.00%.

Goldman Sachs added another rate hike to its outlook for the Fed following hotter-than-expected inflation data. Higher Treasury yields can make government bonds more attractive to investors seeking income, increasing the competition for capital faced by assets such as Bitcoin, which do not pay a yield.

At the same time, the broader money supply has continued to grow. M2, a broad measure of money in the economy, was up 5.7% year over year as of September. That growth has not prevented money from moving away from Bitcoin in recent weeks.

Liquidations add to volatility

Leveraged positions are another source of pressure. When a trader borrows to bet on rising prices, a sharp decline can leave the position without enough collateral. An exchange may then force-close it, a process known as liquidation.

CoinDesk reported about $1.64 billion in crypto futures liquidations over 24 hours on November 13, with most involving long positions—bets that prices would rise.

Prediction-market pricing also points to downside concerns. On Kalshi, traders assigned a 23% chance to Bitcoin falling below $55,000 before January 1, 2027, and a 15% chance of it dropping below $50,000. They put the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by year-end at 4%.

For Bitcoin to make a convincing run toward $87,397 in 2027, ETF inflows would need to recover and remain positive, pushing cumulative net inflows above their October peak. The 10-year Treasury yield would also need to retreat toward its November 5 level of 4.84%.

Price recovery would be another important test. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average—the average closing price over the past 200 days—stood at $73,043.04, while its 50-day average was $80,558.31. A move above the 200-day average would be an early sign of improvement; until then, a return to $87,397 remains a more distant target.

If ETF outflows continue and yields stay above 5%, traders may watch Bitcoin’s June closing low of $58,566.09. A daily close below that level could raise concerns that the decline is following a pattern similar to 2022, when the market made a lower low several months after its first major drop.