Bitcoin's rebound off its election-night slide is losing steam, and a pair of cycle gauges tracked by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests the drawdown may not be finished.
The largest cryptocurrency by market value tumbled to roughly $75,736 on Tuesday evening as returns from the U.S. midterm elections came in, its weakest level in nearly seven weeks. It then climbed back above $81,000 before giving up the gain and settling near $80,120 on Binance at 11:10 UTC on Thursday.
What separates this episode from past turning points, according to the analytics firm, is how muted the underlying cycle readings remain. The Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has slipped to 15.8% on a 30-day moving average, a reading the firm places in a "watch / mild pressure" band. With BTC still about 46% below its prior record high, the drawdown is steep, yet the index sits far under the levels that accompanied active or extreme phases in 2021 and again during the 2024-2025 advance.
The Cycle Extreme Oscillator paints a similar picture. Its 30-day average is hugging the floor of its historical range and stays well below the 1.0 threshold that previous cycles crossed during pronounced moves in early 2021 and at several points in 2024-2025. The firm said it found no comparable increase, leaving "little evidence of a decisive cycle-extreme signal."
"The indicators suggest Bitcoin is in a corrective, subdued phase rather than at a confirmed cycle bottom," CryptoQuant said, adding that further consolidation or another leg lower remains possible before a durable recovery takes hold. The firm also cautioned that cooling cycle conditions should not be read as a confirmed reversal.
A separate set of exchange-flow data offered a more constructive read. CryptoQuant analyst COINDREAM noted that miners and large holders pushed unusually heavy volumes of BTC toward Binance around the vote, yet prices rose anyway. The exchange whale ratio, which measures the share of inflows coming from the ten largest deposits, jumped to almost 1.0, above the roughly 0.85-0.87 peaks seen in February and March. The Miners' Position Index, which compares miner outflows with their yearly average, spiked to about 2.9 before retreating to roughly 0.2.
The analyst framed three tests for a genuine rally. The first, miner pressure, has already eased with the MPI back near normal. The second, absorption of large deposits, is holding for now: BTC gained 3.9% on Wednesday to close at $80,504 despite the whale inflows, with buyers taking 54% of Binance spot trading. The third, a recovery above recent highs on strong spot volume, has not been met. The nearest barrier is $81,971, where BTC traded on October 29 before news of the Binance hack broke.
"Continued MPI normalization, absorption of large deposits, and a recovery above those highs supported by spot volume would strengthen the case that a new rally is beginning," the analyst wrote.
Miners had reason to move coins. Mining difficulty rose 5.5% on October 29, the same day BTC fell on the hack news, squeezing revenue per unit of computing power just as prices dropped. With hashrate near 1,030 EH/s, mempool.space estimates the next adjustment on November 13 will trim difficulty by about 2.8%. The firm's own chart notes that miner outflows are not the same as confirmed selling.
The technical picture is finely balanced. The 20-day EMA sits at $79,965 and the 50-day EMA at $80,149, making the $80,000 area the first line of support. A daily close above $81,971 on above-average spot volume would open the way toward $84,898, the October 21 high. Holding between $80,000 and $81,971 would imply more range trading while the whale deposits clear, and a close back below $80,000 would put the election-night low of $75,736 back in play.
Fund flows have been uneven. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $74.57 million on November 4, their first inflow of the month after three straight days of redemptions. October ended with more than half a billion dollars leaving the funds, and November has so far shed another $439.61 million.
Note: The whale ratio measures the share of exchange inflows from the ten largest deposits. The Miners' Position Index compares miner outflows with their yearly average.
Elsewhere, Switzerland approved its first Bitcoin ETF open to retail investors, a product that offers direct exposure through a regulated structure without requiring holders to manage wallets or private keys. Earlier Swiss offerings had been restricted to professional investors.
Stablecoin supply has also begun climbing again, a signal some market participants read as fresh liquidity entering the crypto ecosystem. One CryptoQuant-affiliated analyst argued that "the very short bearish trend is coming to an end, and BTC is on the verge of shifting back into a bullish trend." The post did not disclose supply figures or a timeframe, and rising stablecoin balances do not by themselves mean holders intend to buy Bitcoin.
Crypto analyst Bren expects a retest of the $56,000 bear-market low before a stronger recovery, followed by a bullish first half of 2027 and a new record high that year.
For investors, the takeaway is that the bounce has restored some confidence without clearing the conditions that would confirm a bottom. Until spot buyers push the price decisively above $81,971 on heavy volume, the heavy miner and whale deposits risk reading as supply the market merely absorbed rather than demand that has turned the tide.
