Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting a rebound after a sharp selloff, but analysts say growing inflows from large investors (whales) to exchanges and still-elevated leverage are raising the risk of further declines. XWIN Japan, a contributor to the on-chain crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant, offered this assessment on the 9th (local time) based on the exchange whale ratio and estimated leverage ratio.
Bitcoin fell from above $75,600 on the 9th to around $73,400 before recovering to about $75,500, but retreated again to around $74,600 by the morning of the 10th, Japan time. Large-scale long position liquidations deepened the drop, and even during the rebound no clear spot buying was evident.
The most notable indicator is the exchange whale ratio. This metric, which represents the share of the top 10 transactions in total Bitcoin exchange deposits, has repeatedly spiked above 0.4 since late October. It means the volume flowing into exchanges is concentrated in a small number of large trades. However, XWIN Japan cautioned that this indicator alone cannot confirm that whales have actually begun selling.
Leverage pressure has also not been fully unwound. Bitcoin's estimated exchange leverage ratio climbed from around 0.22–0.24 in mid-October to about 0.265 in early November before easing to 0.249 recently. Some leverage was liquidated during the plunge, but the level remains high compared with mid-October.
Institutional demand also shows signs of weakening. U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $411.9 million in net outflows on the 6th alone, with weekly net outflows reaching $1.28 billion. By exchange, some buying flowed into Binance and OKX, while Coinbase continued to show a sell-side bias.
Warnings are also emerging on the market liquidity front. Stablecoin holdings on exchanges, including Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), are reportedly declining. Since stablecoins are the primary means of payment for Bitcoin purchases, a decline in exchange holdings can directly weaken buying power. However, analysts note that a drop in holdings does not necessarily mean investment demand is shrinking and could result from funds moving to personal wallets or other blockchain applications.
Loss-driven selling by short-term holders is also cited as a burden. Recent observations suggest that coins held by short-term investors who moved them recently are trading below their average acquisition cost. Still, the caveat is that not all movement of coins in a loss position means actual selling and could reflect wallet transfers or changes in storage location.
The key ultimately is spot buying. XWIN Japan said "the key is whether actual spot buying can absorb the supply flowing into exchanges." A rebound reliant solely on leverage is unlikely to sustain a price recovery. The analyst stressed that judging whether a sustained recovery takes hold requires examining spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), the Coinbase premium, and spot ETF fund flows together. The warning is that if a leverage-driven rebound continues without a sufficient recovery in spot buying, further price volatility could emerge.
Note: Price and fund flow data are compiled based on XWIN Japan's analysis and market data.
Market participants expect Bitcoin's direction for the time being to be driven by institutional fund flows, derivatives positions, and macroeconomic financial conditions. The prevailing view is that in the current situation, where short-term holder losses and declining stablecoin holdings appear simultaneously, a rebound may be temporary and prices could again face selling pressure until buying demand strengthens.
