Bitcoin's slide to roughly $73,700, its weakest level since August, has revived debate over what is really driving the selloff. For analyst Benjamin Cowen, the answer has less to do with crypto headlines than with the equity market unraveling alongside it.
Cowen, who has spent 2026 arguing that Bitcoin's fourth-quarter weakness would stem from a correction in stocks, said on a Nov. 9 podcast that the thesis is now playing out. The Nasdaq's recent tumble, its sharpest in more than a year as investors questioned AI valuations and the capital pouring into data-center buildouts, has coincided with Bitcoin's own decline. He framed the move as part of a broader risk-off event rather than an isolated crypto collapse.
That view rests on a macro-cycle observation: Bitcoin has tended to become especially vulnerable in midterm years when equities are already losing momentum. Cowen points to 2014, 2018 and 2022, when stocks were correcting and Bitcoin's fourth quarters were ugly.
Note: Figures reflect Cowen's cited historical fourth-quarter returns.
The comparison is not perfectly mechanical. The three periods carried very different crypto-specific problems: 2018 was still unwinding the 2017 bubble, while 2022 brought the collapse of major crypto firms and the FTX crisis. Cowen acknowledged as much, writing on X that "people can mock these ideas (and they have), but it does not stop the events from happening all the same."
Technical signals reinforce his caution. Bitcoin has slipped into its bull market support band, the zone between the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average. It bounced off the 21-week EMA before dropping toward the 20-week SMA, a pattern he says mirrors moves in Ethereum and the Nasdaq. The token also closed back below its 50-week moving average after briefly breaking above it, which he reads as a possible bull trap.
Momentum behind the breakout was thin. Cowen noted that Bitcoin's push above the 50-week line produced gains of only about 10%, against roughly 30% advances after similar breaks in 2019 and 2023. The reversal below its May high, he added, is further evidence of a failed bullish breakout.
His road map calls for a decline in stages, with temporary rebounds along the way, before a potential final low in the fourth quarter. Earlier troughs came in February and in the summer. Using historical patterns around the Federal Reserve's first rate hike, he flags weakness near days 58 and 94 of the cycle; with the current cycle near day 54, December stands out as a plausible bottoming window. He also cited Bitcoin's December 2018 low, suggesting the coming Fed meeting could mark a turning point if investors begin to anticipate an end to rate increases.
Crypto has its own drags as well. Regulatory uncertainty, the Binance hack, soft ETF flows and heavy liquidations have all added pressure and can amplify moves that start elsewhere. Still, the timing is hard to dismiss: Nasdaq weakness, selling in AI-linked stocks and Bitcoin losses are unfolding almost simultaneously.
The test comes if equities steady. Should technology shares recover while Bitcoin keeps falling, the crypto-specific bear case gains credibility; should the two rebound together, Cowen's macro explanation looks stronger. Bitcoin traded near $73,700 at the time of the analysis.
