Bitcoin may have passed its market bottom, with exhausted selling pressure supporting a case for a record high in 2027. Buying by institutions, sales by smaller holders and a muted price response to bad news underpin that assessment.
In an interview on Cointelegraph’s X account on November 6, Mark Moss, a partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, said on-chain activity, price reactions to adverse news and market performance around US midterm elections suggested Bitcoin’s low was already behind it.
Moss argued that markets turn when buyers or sellers run out. Market bottoms typically involve a final wave of capitulation as remaining holders give up and sell, a phase he believes Bitcoin has already passed.
He pointed to trading activity over roughly seven or eight months. Institutions bought more than $3 billion worth of Bitcoin during that period, while wallets holding less than 10 Bitcoin sold almost 5,000 Bitcoin, he said. Moss interpreted that shift as evidence that smaller holders had capitulated, selling pressure had eased and buying had resumed.
Bitcoin’s resilience to adverse news supported the same interpretation, he said. Moss cited successive reports of wallet and exchange hacks that failed to push prices substantially lower, describing the response as evidence of seller exhaustion and a change in sentiment.
Moss also cited market performance following US midterm elections. His analysis of 19 midterms since 1950 found that stocks were higher three, six and 12 months later in every case, with the S&P 500 gaining an average of about 15% over 12 months, he said. Bitcoin’s available history was shorter, beginning in 2014, but its average gain 12 months after midterms was about 53%, according to Moss.
He argued that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle had become harder to explain through halvings alone. With new supply small relative to demand, cutting issuance in half had less impact than before, while global liquidity, business conditions and the US presidential cycle played a larger role, he said. Citing market cycles and returns following tests of the 200-week moving average, Moss said he expected Bitcoin to surpass its previous record in 2027.
Over the longer term, Moss said a $1 million Bitcoin price was not excessively optimistic, while declining to pin that outcome to a specific date. He said it could occur in 2030 or 2032, emphasizing direction over precise timing. His assessment drew on several valuation models and the share Bitcoin could capture of the market for assets used to store wealth.
Riza Dagoc
Riza Dagoc reports on regulation, investing and the digital-asset business for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to [email protected].
