[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin is slipping into the $73,500 range, falling below a long-term support zone of $74,000 to $75,000. An analysis said the move resembles the rebound after a correction in March 2023, but a recovery of the support zone and a breakout above near-term resistance would need to come first for further gains.
The blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic said on Nov. 10 (local time) that Bitcoin's recent move compares with a retest of the long-term trendline from early 2023, when it was emerging from a bear market. It cited the similarity of a pullback after a shift back to an uptrend, followed by a test of support near the long-term moving average.
In 2023, Bitcoin at one point fell to $19,628 in March but recovered to $27,788 a week later. It then rose to about $30,550 on April 11, up about 55 percent from the March low. At the time, the recovery continued as buying flowed in near the long-term moving average that had been broken earlier in the year.
This time, the price has also fallen close to the long-term support line, but caution is needed because it is currently below that zone. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $74,000 to $75,000, it may be necessary to examine the possibility of further declines rather than expecting a rebound similar to the past.
Even if it regains the support zone, there is a step left to confirm a near-term trend reversal. The 20-day exponential moving average is $78,106 and the 50-day exponential moving average is $79,232, both above the current price. That makes it important, after recovering the $74,000 range, whether it can break through resistance at $78,000 to $80,000.
Applying a similar rise to 2023 would put Bitcoin at about $111,000 if it rebounds 50 percent from $74,000, or about $114,700 if it rises 55 percent. But this is a calculation that simply applies past gains. To reach those levels, it would need to break above around $80,000 and then clear supply in the mid-$80,000s, as well as the psychological resistance at $100,000.
Conversely, if it breaks below the recent low zone of $73,400 to $73,600, expectations for a rebound could weaken. With the current price straddling that range, the immediate focus is whether it can prevent further declines and regain the $74,000 range, rather than matching past gains.
The analysis focused on defending the long-term support line and zones used to confirm a trend reversal, rather than on the size of the price rise. It said the next key levels for Bitcoin have been narrowed to a recovery of $74,000 and a move up to $78,000 to $80,000, making the technical reference lines clearer.
