Bitcoin entered the week at its weakest level since mid-August, and the next five trading days pack three events capable of deciding whether the slide stops or accelerates: Nvidia's quarterly results, the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes and Anthropic's initial public offering.
The largest cryptocurrency traded near $64,500 on Saturday evening, down roughly 5.4% in 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. By Sunday morning in Europe it was changing hands at about $64,400, or around $64,000. The Fear and Greed Index had fallen to 13 from 32 on Nov. 10, a reading that sits deep in extreme fear.
The decline has been steady rather than sudden. Bitcoin stood near $77,500 on Nov. 1, $75,800 on Nov. 7, $71,400 on Nov. 13 and $68,300 on Nov. 14, based on daily data from CoinGecko. Saturday's drop pushed it below the 200-week moving average of just under $67,800, a level that has acted as a floor in previous cycles. The price now sits about $10,000 under both its 200-day average of roughly $75,900 and its 50-day average of around $77,600.
Note: Price data from CoinGecko; ETF flows from Farside Investors; sentiment reading from alternative.me as of Nov. 14.
Nvidia's first earnings call without Huang
Nvidia (NVDA) reports third-quarter results for its fiscal 2027 year on Tuesday after the US close, with the conference call following. It will be the first full quarter reported since Jensen Huang stepped down as chief executive on Nov. 12, a departure that followed reports of a relationship with a Chinese national suspected by US intelligence of espionage and, separately, with two Nvidia employees. Chief financial officer Colette Kress has taken over as interim CEO while the board searches for a permanent replacement.
The stock fell more than 10% on the day of the announcement and is down 12.68% year to date. Analysts still expect a strong quarter: the Zacks consensus calls for earnings of $2.49 per share on revenue of $108.99 billion, above the $108 billion outlook the company gave in August.
Baird Equity Research analyst Tristan Gerra wrote in an investor note that the resignation "turns a page" for Nvidia but that the episode has not yet hit bottom. He listed "potential incremental senior management departures, H200 write-down charges, potential risk channel revenue adjustments, potential litigation [and] fines" among the headwinds, along with uncertainty until a new CEO is named.
For crypto traders the timing matters as much as the numbers. The release lands when only after-hours trading is running in New York, while digital assets trade around the clock and absorb any surprise immediately.
Fed minutes are the week's pivot
The Fed publishes minutes of its Oct. 27-28 meeting on Wednesday. Policymakers left the benchmark rate in the 3.75% to 4% range after the September increase, but the decision was not unanimous: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a quarter-point hike, and the committee said inflation remained elevated.
Subsequent data have not eased the concern. Consumer prices rose 0.4% month on month in October, and 0.3% excluding food and energy, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which did not publish an annual rate because comparison data for October 2025 are missing. Producer prices climbed 6.5% from a year earlier.
The minutes will show how many other officials were weighing a hike. The more there are, the greater the chance of an increase at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, a headwind for Bitcoin because higher rates make safe assets more attractive. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Monday in San Francisco, his first public remarks since the meeting, and Governor Christopher Waller addresses payments on Tuesday.
Anthropic's offering competes for the same money
Anthropic is due to price its IPO on Wednesday and begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT on Thursday. The company plans to sell 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78 apiece, a range that implies a market value of $1.3 trillion to $1.45 trillion and gross proceeds of up to $64.4 billion at the top end. An earlier projection of a valuation as high as $2 trillion has been scaled back amid the turmoil in AI stocks.
For the nine months ended Sept. 30, revenue grew 1,206% to $33.2 billion, while aggregate committed spending reached $895.4 billion, mostly for compute and infrastructure. Nvidia is set to invest up to $10 billion through a private placement ahead of the listing, matched by Alphabet (GOOG) at $10 billion, with $6 billion more from Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU), Microsoft (MSFT) and other technology firms.
The offering ties up investor cash at a moment when risk appetite is already thin, and its reception will be read as a gauge of demand for AI exposure broadly.
ETF outflows drain the market's biggest buyer
The heaviest drag since early November has come from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Net outflows totaled $1.07 billion in the week through Nov. 13, with $908 million leaving BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone. The prior week saw $1.28 billion redeemed, bringing the two-week total to about $2.35 billion and extending the streak to seven consecutive trading days of outflows.
Note: Figures from Farside Investors.
Friday brings another test: Bitcoin options on roughly 28,300 BTC expire on Deribit at 9 a.m. CET, with a notional value of about $1.8 billion. Open interest splits into about 18,100 BTC of calls and 10,200 BTC of puts, a put-call ratio of 0.56. The max pain level sits at $73,000, with the largest call blocks there and at $76,000 and the biggest put concentration at $70,000. Because the spot price is far below those strikes, many calls will expire worthless, though the expiry itself can amplify volatility.
A larger test follows on Nov. 27, when monthly options on about 88,000 BTC, worth $5.7 billion, come due, including a notable block of puts at $58,000 just under the twelve-month low.
What would turn it around
A first day of ETF inflows would be the most meaningful positive signal of the week, given that the funds have been the market's largest buyer over the past two years. Minutes showing only two members favoring a hike, combined with a confident outlook from Nvidia, would give Bitcoin room to retrace part of its roughly 17% decline this month, with the broken 200-week average near $67,800 as the first hurdle and the 200-day average near $75,900 needed to call an end to the downtrend.
A hawkish set of minutes, continued outflows at recent scale, or an Anthropic offering that pulls capital from other risk assets would argue the other way. Below the July 1 low of $58,570, there is no further level from this year to lean on.
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