Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $70,000 for the first time in roughly three months, pressured by a combination of rising US inflation worries, growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, weakness in technology shares, outflows from crypto exchange-traded funds and liquidations in leveraged positions. The token was changing hands near $69,000 as analysts published competing technical readings of where it goes next.
The two camps are divided over a pair of price levels: $64,200 on the downside and roughly $57,700 in a deeper correction scenario. One analyst sees the bull market intact so long as the lower of those two holds; another warns that a momentum gauge has already flipped negative and that history argues for further losses.
Market analyst Omkar Godbole pointed to Bitcoin's weekly MACD, a momentum measure used to gauge trend shifts, which dropped below zero this week. In his reading, that points to fading upward momentum, and if the weekly candle stays in negative territory through Sunday's close, the bearish signal would be confirmed.
Godbole went back through the record and found that since November 2012 the weekly MACD has produced bearish signals 24 times. In 13 of those instances, Bitcoin lost more than 16% before turning higher again. Applying that pattern to the current level of about $69,000 produces a possible slide to roughly $57,700.
The analyst was careful to note that MACD alone cannot determine future prices, framing $57,700 as a scenario drawn from historical data rather than a firm target.
CryptoQuant analyst MacD offered a more constructive view. In his assessment, Bitcoin can keep its uptrend and the current bull market stays valid as long as the $64,200 level is defended. He described that threshold as a critical support for the market's direction.
"Personally, I think Bitcoin's bull market is still valid as long as it doesn't fall below the $64,200 level," the CryptoQuant analyst said.
He also noted that realized losses among short-term holders have climbed to levels recorded at major bottoms during past bull markets, and that acute fear has historically coincided with the formation of significant price lows.
"The main lows of the market have always been formed in an environment of intense fear," he said.
Note: Price levels and historical counts are as cited by the two analysts.
The backdrop is a broader retreat from risk. Higher inflation readings have revived bets that the Fed will tighten again, a shift that tends to weigh on speculative assets, and technology stocks have sold off alongside crypto. Spot Bitcoin funds have seen redemptions, and forced closures of leveraged positions have added to the selling.
For investors, the next few sessions carry outsized weight. A weekly close that keeps the MACD in negative territory would validate the bearish reading and put the $57,700 scenario in play. Holding above $64,200, by contrast, would support the case that the pullback is a shakeout within an intact uptrend, with distressed selling by short-term holders marking a floor rather than the start of a longer decline.
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