Bitcoin (BTC) moved only modestly in the early hours of November 9, holding in the $75,000 range. According to cryptocurrency data site CoinMarketCap, the price was around $75,605, up 0.11% over the past 24 hours—essentially flat. It has been unable to recover the roughly $76,000 level reached before last week's sharp slump, and the market continues to struggle on the upside.
Weighing on the market is the large-scale liquidation of leveraged trades that occurred the previous week. During the sharp declines of November 5–6, forced liquidations of long positions swept through the crypto market against the backdrop of a selloff in US tech stocks. Total liquidations over 24 hours reached about $1.27 billion, of which more than $1.1 billion were longs. The forced selling is believed to have amplified Bitcoin's decline.
Institutional fund flows are also hindering a recovery. According to data compiled by Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) recorded net outflows of about $411.9 million (approximately ¥65 billion) on November 6. That followed outflows of about $430.2 million (approximately ¥68 billion) on the prior trading day, November 5, marking two consecutive trading days of outflows and bringing the weekly total for November 2–6 to about $1.28 billion (approximately ¥200 billion).
Note: Based on data compiled by Farside Investors. Yen conversions calculated at ¥158 to the dollar.
The picture diverged by issuer. About $403 million (approximately ¥64 billion) flowed out of BlackRock's "IBIT" on November 6, while about $42.8 million (approximately ¥6.8 billion) flowed into Fidelity's "FBTC."
Market sentiment also reflects caution. According to CoinMarketCap's analysis, the crypto market's Fear & Greed Index stood at 32, indicating "Fear," and Bitcoin's seven-day change was minus 2.68%. While price action calmed over the weekend, there is little in the way of clear catalysts for a rebound, the analysis suggested.
On the technical front, resistance levels above are in focus. Recent trading has remained below the 50-day moving average (around $81,770), and the market has yet to regain its recovery footing. On the upside, resistance is seen around $76,300, followed by $77,700–$78,000. On the downside, the first support level is around $75,150, and a clear break below $74,000 could deepen the decline toward $72,000–$72,300.
The next focal point is US inflation data. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on November 10. In the October US employment report released on November 7, nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, far exceeding market expectations, and the probability of a December rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (FRB) has risen to around 80% in market pricing. Higher interest rates tend to lift yields on low-risk assets and cool demand for speculative assets.
Outflows from spot ETFs are seen as a factor capping Bitcoin's upside from a supply-demand perspective. However, ETF redemptions do not unilaterally determine price direction, and spot demand through other channels could absorb the selling. Market participants are watching the inflation data and whether the $75,000 level can be held as they assess the viability of a recovery scenario into year-end.
