Summary

  • The post-election rally has been erased. Bitcoin is back in the $74,925 to $76,052 swing area, with the 100-day moving average the next upside test if buyers can get out of it.

Bitcoin moved higher with stocks in the risk-on trade that followed the election results. Yesterday, that trade went into reverse. As AI concerns sent stocks tumbling, Bitcoin gave up its post-election gains, fell back below its 100-day moving average and returned to a swing area that has repeatedly come into play since August.

In the video above, I walk through the chart and outline what needs to happen to give buyers some relief. Where can buyers lean with close risk? What levels would they need to get above to take back some control? And where does the price have room to roam if the floor gives way?

Bitcoin was trading near $75,632 at the time of the chart, inside the swing area between $74,925 and $76,052. The upper end is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the July low. The lower end is the floor buyers need to defend.

As long as the price holds above $74,925, buyers have a level to lean against with close risk. The first sign of relief would be a move back above $76,052 that can hold. That would take the price out of the swing area and give buyers a shot at the next upside target.

The 100-day moving average comes in at $77,061. Get above that and stay above, and traders can start to eye the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at $77,631 and $77,795, respectively. Those two hourly averages are close enough to treat as a zone. A move through both would give buyers more confidence and open the door to the next swing level near $79,146.

Until the price starts reclaiming those levels, sellers still have the technical edge.

Move below $74,925 and stay below, and the focus shifts to the 200-day moving average at $73,190. Below that, the next target is the 50% midpoint of the move up from the July low at $72,554.

The distinction I’m watching is what happens after a break. A dip below $74,925 that quickly moves back into the swing area would put sellers on alert for a failed break. A break that stays below the floor, especially if a bounce stalls back near $74,925, would show that sellers are starting to lean against the old support. That’s the price action that would put the lower targets in play.

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